[whiteperil] Sean: Shocked but not surprised

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Posted by Sean:
Shocked but not surprised
http://whiteperil.com/posts/1189650108.shtml


   Wow. Shinzo Abe can't win for losing. Japan's opposition parties have
   been calling vociferously for his resignation for months. Yesterday he
   announced his resignation...and they're [1]criticizing him for it.

     Democratic Party of Japan President Ichiro Ozawa criticized Prime
     Minister Shinzo Abe for his abrupt resignation announcement on
     Wednesday.
     "[Abe] had been scheduled to answer questions from party
     representatives about his policy speech at the Diet today, but he
     suddenly announced his resignation," Ozawa said at a press
     conference, adding that it was the first time in his political
     career of 40 years that he had witnessed a prime minister resigning
     within days of delivering a policy speech in the Diet. "To tell you
     the truth, I've no idea what was going through Prime Minister Abe's
     mind before he made the announcement."
     Ozawa denied media reports that he had repeatedly rejected requests
     from Abe to hold talks with him. Ozawa said the first request from
     Abe came Wednesday morning through Liberal Democratic Party Diet
     Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima to DPJ Diet Affairs
     Committee Chairman Kenji Yamaoka.

   Well, it was pretty abrupt. I remember reading the report yesterday
   and thinking, What was it that made him decide this today? This
   morning he [2]announced that he's going into the hospital to have
   gastrointestinal problems diagnosed, but commentators are divided over
   whether that was as big a factor as it's made out to be. Abe has
   exhausted all his political capital for the moment, but he's young.
   It's been rumored for ages that LDP higher-ups had been urging Abe to
   step down while he still had some dignity and could make a new bid for
   the prime minister's slot after a few more years of seasoning.
   Who knows? Maybe that could still work. But as I see it, Abe has one
   major problem that no amount of experience is likely to correct: he
   lacks charisma. Utterly. Koizumi was the sort of man who commanded
   attention. If you were cooking or reading with the television on in
   the background, you stopped what you were doing and looked up when he
   started speaking. He was a natural focal point, in a way that went
   deeper than his haircut and Elvis fixation and all that stuff. When he
   staked his job on the passage of the Japan Post privatization bills,
   it was a serious showdown. His sternness and conviction had dimension
   and heft. You felt it, even when he was making compromises left and
   right in practice.
   By contrast, when Abe staked his job on the passage of the extension
   of the anti-terrorism law, it was hard to get worked up (and I say
   that as a WOT-supporting American). Abe is clearly a skillful operator
   when it comes to negotiating with other politicians and playing them
   off one another--one does not become Prime Minister of Japan
   otherwise--but only to a certain point. That final promotion to
   political head of state brought the Peter Principle into play with a
   vengeance. The issues Abe's administration has had to contend
   with--evolving Japanese nationalism, relations with China and the
   Koreas, the extension of the MSDF mission, tankerloads of corruption
   scandals--require an alpha wolf. Even in consensus-loving Japan,
   people get the heebs when it seems as if there's no one in charge in
   the cabinet. Abe simply [3]doesn't project authority.

     On Wednesday, even Liberal Democratic Party Diet members close to
     Abe sternly criticized him after his resignation sent shock waves
     through the party.
     "I'm disappointed in him as he's tossed out his administration,"
     one of them said.
     "How does he see the responsibilities of a prime minister?" another
     asked.
     At a press conference in Sydney on Sunday after the Asia-Pacific
     Economic Cooperation summit, Abe indicated that he would devote his
     energies to extending the refueling mission by the Maritime
     Self-Defense Force in the Indian Ocean, even at the cost of his
     job.
     He gave the impression that he was determined to do his best to
     fulfill his international pledge of extending the MSDF mission by
     holding firm to his post.
     In reality, however, those who took the prime minister at his word
     were mistaken.

   One temporary advantage his successor will have is that he will have a
   ready excuse for seeming unprepared and needing a little time to find
   his balance. The opposition won big in the recent upper house
   election, but that wasn't the result of affection for the DPJ as much
   as it was the result of disgust with the LDP. Unfortunately, I'm not
   sure there are any LDP players in the running who can project moxie as
   leaders while making the compromises necessitated by the new balance
   of power in the Diet. I've always liked Yasuo Fukuda, who like Abe is
   a former Chief Cabinet Secretary. He also has experience in foreign
   affairs and came off as tough and clear-headed when delivering the
   Koizumi cabinet's policy statements to the press. He resigned amid the
   Social Insurance payment scandals of a few years ago, but there don't
   seem to be any contenders for power who are unsullied by scandal these
   days. We'll see soon enough who gets the nod.

References

   1. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20070913TDY01002.htm
   2. http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/main/20070913AT3S1300A13092007.html
   3. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20070913TDY01003.htm