[whiteperil] Sean: More about missiles

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Posted by Sean:
More about missiles
http://whiteperil.com/posts/1152536758.shtml


   So is everyone else on the edge of his seat like us in Japan...you
   know, waiting to see whether the chair of the UN Security Council will
   set the DPRK on its ear by deeming its missile tests "not all that
   neighborly" or "very naughty"? In between errands, I've been watching
   NHK's reporting. Today we were very pointedly informed the cool and
   not-so-cool people are (as in [1]this Yomiuri article):

     Japan, Britain, France and the United States on Friday jointly
     submitted to an informal U.N. Security Council meeting a resolution
     condemning North Korea's missile launches.
     Clauses referring to sanctions in an original draft crafted by
     Japan had been modified.
     ...
     "All options are on the table," he said, suggesting China has not
     ruled out the possibility of vetoing the resolution.
     ...
     According to sources, Russia, which has called for the issuance of
     a U.N. Security Council presidential statement, did not speak out
     during the meeting. Some U.N. diplomats have interpreted this
     silence as an indication it will abstain from voting.
     China and Russia can veto the resolution, abstain from voting, or
     demand that it be modified.

   I didn't catch all the numbers, but NHK also reported the results of
   its [2]latest poll. Unfortunately, the interesting parts don't seem to
   be posted: IIRC, 69% of respondents thought Japan should pursue
   economic sanctions against the DPRK. (Remember that the Japanese are
   thinking not only about missile testing but also about the
   still-unresolved issue of the Japanese abductees.) A plurality, if not
   a majority, believed that Japan's best avenue for pushing its North
   Korea policy was the UNSC; somewhat fewer thought it was the G7.
   The Koizumi administration appears to have [3]other ideas:

     Defense Agency chief Fukushiro Nukaga said the Self-Defense Forces
     (SDF) should have the capability to attack foreign countries'
     missile bases following North Korea's test-launch last week of
     seven missiles.
     "As an independent state, Japan should have the minimum capability
     (to attack foreign countries' missile bases) within the framework
     of the Constitution to protect its people," Nukaga told reporters
     on Sunday.
     "We shouldn't jump to conclusions even though such a situation (the
     test firing of missiles) occurred. I'd like the ruling coalition
     partners to thoroughly discuss the issue," Nukaga said.
     He made the remarks in response to North Korea's test-firing of
     seven missiles, including Taepodong 2 long-range ballistic
     missiles, last week.
     His view was shared by Foreign Minister Taro Aso. "It's absolutely
     right (to attack missile bases within the framework of Japan's
     right to self-defense) to protect the safety of the people," he
     told an NHK program on Sunday.

   The [4]original Japanese story has Nukaga continuing: "As things are
   now, we have the Japan-US alliance, and we've been sharing [defense]
   roles. Strikes against enemy territory would be carried out by the
   US."
   Instapundit's newest [5]podcast, featured Austin Bay and Jim Dunnigan
   and was mostly about the North Korea situation. It provides a good
   primer on the diplomatic power plays involved. If you live in East
   Asia, it's also a good reminder that a lot about your everyday reality
   is news to people elsewhere (for example, the commonalities between
   Great Britain and Japan that are based on their both being island
   countries).
   There was one moment that made me say, "WHAT?!" Jim Dunnigan said
   something on the order of "I've asked South Koreans I know whether
   being prickly and taking offense easily is a Korean characteristic,
   and they said, 'Not really,'" which he appeared to take at face value.
   Please. The Koreans are in fact notoriously touchy about their
   position in East Asia...and do you wonder? Like Poland (just to spread
   the comparisons to Europe around), Korea has spent much of its history
   being overrun by its larger, hungrier neighbors. And look what's
   happened in the last half-century: Japan went from the humiliated
   pariah of the industrialized world to an economic titan that, for a
   decade or so, had academics and managers from the West looking to it
   reverently for secrets of success. China and Japan have had a massive
   tastemaking influence on global popular culture. Korea's coolness
   factor in Asia has increased noticeably over the last several years,
   and the ROK's economic growth since democratization has won much
   admiration from business analysts; still, nternational consciousness
   about Korea remains relatively low. I doubt many people sit around in
   Seoul seething about this in any focused way, but the feeling that
   Korea is misunderstood and put-upon is hard to miss.
   Of course, the North has the additional problem of a non-functioning
   economy. It's hemorrhaging refugees. Have I mentioned the word è±å
   (dappoku: "escape to the north") lately? Oh, yeah--I haven't mentioned
   anything lately because I haven't posted. Well, it's a compound that,
   whatever its origins and at least in Japan, is used exclusively to
   refer to defecting from the DPRK over its border with the PRC. That
   is, the phenomenon has its own word. Jim Dunnigan, I think, mentioned
   that word about what a hellhole North Korea is has arrived in the
   South. It's arrived in Japan, also, largely through Japanese nationals
   who've returned from the DPRK. All of which is to say, the DPRK knows
   that, aside from the occasional puff piece by gullible lefty
   sympathizers from the West, how bad things have gotten there is no
   longer a secret.
   One last stray thing: The NHK report I watched last night struck me as
   odd for some reason I couldn't put my finger on. Then, while a later
   segment about the opening of a border checkpoint between India and the
   PRC--you can bet the Japanese are watching how trade relations are
   going to develop between those two!--it hit me. The experts
   interviewed had all talked about how Japan's options for responding to
   the missile tests would be limited by whether the US was willing to
   back it up. What was strange was that they seemed to be regarding the
   tests as a regional problem, as if the US had no reason to get
   involved except to do right by its primary East Asian ally. Of course,
   that's part of it. We've known since 1998 that the DPRK can get
   missiles to Japan. (That was a fun day to watch NHK, too, IIRC.) But
   North Korea not only likes to get antsy about perceived US threats to
   its sovereignty but also likes to drag big-guns backers such as the
   PRC and Russia into things. The Koizumi administration appears to
   understand the import of that; it was strange that the commentators
   didn't.

References

   1. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/world/20060709TDY01002.htm
   2. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/2006/07/10/d20060710000149.html
   3. http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/national/news/20060710p2a00m0na045000c.html
   4. http://www.mainichi-msn.co.jp/today/news/20060710k0000e010062000c.html
   5. http://instapundit.com/archives/031297.php