[whataretheysaying] Mary Madigan: What's up with the N.I.E. report?

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Posted by Mary Madigan:
What's up with the N.I.E. report?
http://whataretheysaying.powerblogs.com/posts/1196994264.shtml


   The most cogent comment I've heard, thanks to Ben L.:

     It's a signal. First, they are obviously producing weapons grade
     uranium, which is a major component of a weapons program. Saying
     it's not is silly. It would be like saying someone purchased a
     Christmas tree and four rolls of wrapping paper, but other than
     that there are no signs that someone plans to celebrate Christmas.
     Second, when at least some intel obviously exists, REAL
     intelligence estimates always either take a pessimistic or vague
     view. Analysts would write "We have no indicators or reliable data
     on Iran's current nuclear weapons program". They would NEVER in
     these circumstances say there is no program- only that we lack
     data. NO ONE would simply declare a major p[iece] of the puzzle to
     be irrelevant.

     That being said, why then would they say it? It's a signal. It's
     like, when you're in the wilderness and you come across a bear and
     the bear looks away. It's not that the bear doesn't see you. It
     knows exactly where you are. It is pretending not to see you,
     giving you a signal that says "I'm acting like I don't see you so
     you can leave and we don't have to fight."

     This signal most likely says "Iraq is finally calming down. And
     your reward for not escalating matters is that we will look away
     for a while and pretend not to see you, so we don't have to fight."

   ..an opinion that's shared, to [1]some degree, by [2]others.

References

   1. http://hotair.com/archives/2007/12/06/time-why-the-pentagon-is-happy-about-the-nie
   2. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1690696,00.html