[whataretheysaying] Mary Madigan: Hostilities in Lebanon

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Posted by Mary Madigan:
Hostilities in Lebanon
http://whataretheysaying.powerblogs.com/posts/1164214374.shtml


   [1]Michael Totten and [2]others note [3]that the stage is set for
   [4]civil war in Lebanon

     There is little doubt that Syria's widespread intelligence and
     security apparatus organized Gemayel's assassination. The Lebanese
     government was poised to approve legislation for the formation of
     an international tribunal to try suspects in the al-Hariri
     assassination, which has made the Syrian regime and its allies in
     Lebanon nervous, to say the least. To thwart the tribunal formation
     and ensure that the government remains in gridlock, five of
     Lebanon's Shiite Cabinet ministers belonging to Hezbollah and the
     Amal Movement resigned Nov. 11. Pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile
     Lahoud also has refused to sign any decree on the tribunal.

     Following the summer conflict with Israel, radical Shiite Islamist
     group Hezbollah has seized the opportunity to fortify its political
     position in Lebanon by forcing an expansion of the Lebanese Cabinet
     that would give Shiite parliament members veto power to counter the
     anti-Syrian March 14 coalition. To achieve this, Hezbollah has
     escalated sectarian tensions in the country and organized massive
     demonstrations in Beirut in an effort to prove it can control the
     decisions of the Lebanese government with or without majority
     political representation.

     Now that Gemayel has been eliminated from the Cabinet, only one
     more Cabinet position needs to fall in order for the government to
     lose its constitutionality. Gemayel's assassination is part of a
     strategy to bring down the Lebanese government and force new
     elections that could favor Hezbollah and its Shiite allies...

     ...The Lebanese army already has deployed four brigades to greater
     Beirut to assume combat readiness in case Hezbollah forces attack
     Sunnis in West Beirut. Lebanon's Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri
     clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of
     fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military
     training in order to counter Hezbollah's well-equipped and
     well-trained military forces. In the meantime, Syria continues to
     send reinforcements to its allies in Lebanon. Syrian army officers
     who previously served in Lebanon have infiltrated the country and
     are leading combat units of their allies in Hezbollah, pro-Syrian
     groups and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Furthermore, about
     2,500 Syrian troops masquerading as laborers have joined the ranks
     of the anti-government forces in Lebanon.

     Though Hezbollah is unlikely to engage in a military confrontation
     at this time in order to preserve its legitimacy as a resistance
     movement acting in the interests of the Lebanese people, an
     outbreak of hostilities between Lebanon's rival factions is a real
     possibility.

   Just wondering ...what are the UN peacekeepers doing while all of this
   is going on?

References

   1. http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001313.html
   2. http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/ny-woanal1122,0,4569365.story?coll=ny-leadworldnews-headlines
   3. http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=202029666&p=zxzx3x37z
   4. http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L22910794&WTmodLoc=World-R5-Alertnet-2