[whataretheysaying] Mary Madigan: We think the bad guys are winning, but they're not so sure..

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Posted by Mary Madigan:
We think the bad guys are winning, but they're not so sure..
http://whataretheysaying.powerblogs.com/posts/1154365022.shtml


   Via (of all places) the [1]New York Times:

     These should be heady days for Iranâs leaders. Hezbollah, widely
     regarded as its proxy force in Lebanon, continues to rain down
     rockets on Israel despite 17 days of punishing airstrikes.
     Hezbollahâs leader is a hero of the Arab world, and Iran is basking
     in the reflected glory.

     Yet this capital is unusually tense. Officials, former officials
     and analysts say that it is too dangerous even to discuss the
     crisis. In newspapers, the slightest questioning of support for
     Hezbollah has been attacked as unpatriotic, pro-Zionist and
     anti-Islamic.

     As the war in Lebanon grinds on, Iranian officials cannot seem to
     decide whether Iran will emerge stronger â or unexpectedly
     weakened.

     They are increasingly confident of an ideological triumph. But they
     also believe the war itself has already harmed Hezbollahâs strength
     as a military deterrent for Iran on the Israeli border...

   Iranian experts (who refuse to be identified for their own safety) are
   fairly open and honest about Hezbollah's strategic value to Iran.

     ...Iranâs relationship to Hezbollah is both strategic and
     ideological. The Islamic Revolution in 1979 was viewed by its
     clerical leaders as a part of a pan-Muslim movement. Linking up
     with the Shiite Muslims of southern Lebanon was part of Iranâs
     efforts to spread its ideological influence. But in building up
     Hezbollah, the ideological motivation fused with a practical desire
     to put a force on Israelâs northern border.

     No matter how this conflict is resolved, Iranian officials already
     see their strategic military strength diminished, said the policy
     experts, former officials and one official with close ties to the
     highest levels of government. Even if a cease-fire takes hold, and
     Hezbollah retains some military ability, a Lebanese public eager
     for peace may act as a serious check...

   Shiite Iran's strength is being built at the expense of their Sunni
   rivals:

     ...Iran is the only nation in the Muslim world controlled by
     members of the Shiite sect of Islam, and its push to be a regional
     leader had raised concerns among the areaâs Sunni leadership.

     Iran has used the war in Lebanon to try to prove that talk of a
     Shiite threat is a fiction created by Arab leaders and Americans
     seeking to maintain power in the hands of American friends in
     Cairo, Amman and Riyadh.

     It has pointed to Israelâs destruction of Lebanonâs infrastructure
     to promote the idea that this war is not against Hezbollah but
     against all Muslims. And Iranâs leaders have sought to burnish
     their own image, at the expense of their Sunni rivals...

   Of course, their Sunni rivals aren't really friends of ours either. If
   the al Qaeda-supporting Sunnis gained power over the
   Hezbollah-supporting Shiites, what, exactly, would we gain from that?
   Both sides have used terrorism against us, neither side is an ally.
   Whichever side wins, we lose.

   So how can we ensure that both of our enemies lose?

   [2]Michael Totten has said that "Hezbollah is the most effective Arab
   fighting force in the world", a statement that Iran's leaders seem to
   agree with. Hezbollah is probably the most effective non-Israeli
   fighting force in the Middle East. This doesn't mean that Hezbollah is
   unbeatable. It means that Hezbollah is weak, and most of the
   non-Israeli forces in the Middle East are weaker. In the land of
   military mice, the rat is king.

   Apparently, Israel has seriously injured the best and the brightest of
   their opposition, leaving the opposition somewhat defenseless.

     ...He said that Iran does not have the military ability at home to
     fight an aggressive offensive war against Israel from so far away.
     He said its only offensive tool would be a missile, which he said
     would be of limited effect and accuracy.

     "If Israel attacked us tomorrow, what are we going to do?" he said.

   Right now, our enemies in the Iran/Syria/Hezbollah group are stronger
   than our enemies in Riyadh - but, since our government is still
   pretending that the KSA and their ilk are allies, Iran is more
   vulnerable. If Iran was allowed to become a little stronger, if it
   were allowed to become a regional leader, then the entire region
   becomes more vulnerable. With a little patience, we could create a
   win-win situation for us.

References

   1. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/30/world/middleeast/30iran.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
   2. http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001203.html