[Volokh] Jim Lindgren: Hints of a Republican Bounce.

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Jim Lindgren:
Hints of a Republican Bounce.  
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_08_31-2008_09_06.shtml#1220640452


   Last week, while everyone was saying that the Democrats were not
   getting a bounce from their convention, I was one of the first people
   to [1]note that there were hints of a big 8-10% bounce toward Obama,
   based on changes in the last day of one 3-day tracking poll.

   Now Iâm seeing the same thing for the same reasons in the Republican
   direction (though because of a [2]CBS poll conducted before Palinâs
   speech but released yesterday showing a dead heat, I am far from the
   first to note a probable Republican bounce).

   Today, both the [3]Gallup and the [4]Rasmussen tracking polls are
   showing a 3% move in McCainâs direction from the day before. That
   means that respondents polled on Thursday were 8-10% more favorable
   for the Republicans than those polled on Monday. If polling on Friday
   and Saturday continued in the same direction, that would point to a
   dead heat or insignificant lead for McCain by the 3-day tracking polls
   released on Sunday.

   As I noted before, this might well not happen; There is a reason that
   the polling agencies use three-day averages.

References

   1. http://volokh.com/posts/1219861766.shtml
   2. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
   3. http://www.gallup.com/poll/110065/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Now-Points.aspx
   4. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll