[speedgibson] Speed Gibson: Upsides, Downsides

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Posted by Speed Gibson:
Upsides, Downsides
http://speedgibson.powerblogs.com/posts/1220501075.shtml


   I wrote earlier about how I value executive ability highly in voting
   for President or any other executive position like Mayor or Governor.
   Another criterion is potential, as in will that person be better or
   worse than I expect. Usually a case can be made for both, that the
   candidate has both upside and downside potential.
   For as an executive once told me, when making a decision, you're
   seldom going to hit it right. Part of that decision has to consider
   what that variance might be and the resulting gain or loss. Question
   one is: which way would you rather be wrong? You're 150 yards out, a
   bunker along the right, a sharp dropoff behind the green, a little
   wind left to right. What club do you use? Probably the higher one,
   preferring to be a little short of the green than rolling down the
   ravine. If the bunker looks particularly scary, the kind that seem to
   bend the lines of gravitational flux, and it just hasn't been your
   day, you might even lay up.
   So what do I see in 2008? In alphabetical order:
   Senator Joe Biden is what he is, and little will be asked of him.
   Senator John McCain has several downsides, like his positions on
   immigration and energy, and his lack of executive experience. But in
   every case, his opponent is worse, so these are non-factors. Does he
   have upsides, beyond expectations? Unlikely and modest if any.
   Senator Barack Obama has but one upside, that his election could be a
   watershed in race relations. Regardless, the downsides are nothing
   short of prohibitive. Frankly, his ego worries me more than his lack
   of experience, something he regularly substitutes for knowledge and
   advice.
   I just finished watching Governor Sarah Palin's speech to the
   convention. Just as an aside, if Senator Clinton had Palin's verbal
   delivery speaking skills, she might be the Democratic nominee today.
   Palin has the obvious downside of an unknown thrust onto the national
   scene, but one of many comparative unknowns who have run for Vice
   President. Anybody remember William Miller? Sargent Shriver? Dan
   Quayle? Walter Mondale?
   Sarah Palin is still too new to know for sure, but her upside
   potential is enormous, well beyond any of the other three. She won't
   have much power as Vice President but she is at once the most fearsome
   candidate the Democrats can envision. Even one McCain term could
   easily lead to two Palin terms. No wonder the mainstream media and the
   rest of the Democratic party are panicking just days after the
   announcement.
   As with executive ability, totaling the above tells me that the GOP
   has the better ticket, less likely to disappoint, more likely to
   exceed my expectations.