[speedgibson] Speed Gibson: Voter Turnout this fall

[Email subscription to blog articles]

Posted by Speed Gibson:
Voter Turnout this fall
http://speedgibson.powerblogs.com/posts/1205680857.shtml


   My understanding of national politics is no better than most of the
   "drive by" media, but I think the Democratic Party is headed for the
   rocks, or would be if the Republicans didn't have its own problem.
   There are three Senators left running for President, each with
   significant problems.
   Clinton has huge well-deserved negatives approaching 50 percent. Given
   her own limitations, her debate stumbles, her poor choice of campaign
   staff, and the help she doesn't need from her husband, it's possible
   those negatives are increasing. And wait until the GOP reminds us
   about Billy Dale, Cattle Futures, the looting of Vince Foster's
   office, the FBI files, flying ashtrays, Craig Livingstone, and of
   course, Hillary Care 1993. But while she's behind in the delegate
   race, it is still a close race and she is after all, a Clinton.
   Obama has suddenly fallen from grace, his carefully worded
   explanation(s) for his 20 year association with a undeniably racist,
   America hating pastor wholly unsatisfactory to date. The super
   delegate quandary, Michigan, and Florida have party leaders wringing
   their hands and some donors sitting on their checkbooks. How do they
   avoid this going the distance to the Convention, one sure to end in
   some degree of acrimony for the losing side? Or will, say a Bill
   Richardson, return to save the day? (John Kerry, call your office and
   report for duty!) Me, I'm stocking up on popcorn.
   It's comparatively quiet on the Republican front for now. The (true)
   Conservatives at least have the good sense not to push the Democratic
   in-fighting off the front pages, at least for now. But McCain still
   has much explaining to do of his own. I would think turnout would be
   his first concern, and his choice of running mate could be especially
   significant here. If he can't excite the base, he's in big trouble,
   too, no matter who runs against him. There just aren't enough
   undemanding supporters like our own Prime Minister Pawlenty to win
   out, even with some revenge votes from the disgruntled Democratic
   loser's faction.
   I'm therefore speculating that this historically rare, incumbent-free
   Presidential election could have surprisingly low turnout. There are
   reasons for everyone to stay home if they want to, or vote third
   party, e.g. Ralph Nader. Clinton and McCain have trouble raising
   crowds as it is. Obama has his following, but it's the classic
   mile-wide, inch-deep variety that often doesn't deliver either.
   What effect will this have on state races, especially in Minnesota,
   whose GOP caucuses went big for Mitt Romney, largely as an anyone but
   McCain candidate? I fear that DFL has more voters who will turn out no
   matter what than does the GOP, making the House elections as
   challenging as in 2006. It seems to me that the GOP will have to sell
   a package deal, us vs. the "big spending, tax raising,
   abortion-promoting, gay marriage-embracing,
   more-welfare-without-accountability-loving, school-reform-resisting,
   illegal-immigration-supporting Democrats" as the Governor once put it.
   On the local front, the politics probably are local. I have heard that
   Presidential election years are tougher for getting public school
   referendums passed. We all know how these often pass when the voters
   aren't looking, but if turnout is indeed uncharacteristically low,
   especially if their natural opposition is again unenthusiastic.
   The race that may ultimately affect Minnesota voter turnout is the U.
   S. Senate race now set between incumbent Norm Coleman and challenger
   Al Franken. I can think of no better reason to urge GOP voters not to
   stay home this time.