[econoclectic] EclectEcon: Why the Rise in Violent Crime?

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Posted by EclectEcon:
Why the Rise in Violent Crime?
http://econoclectic.powerblogs.com/posts/1173430601.shtml


   The [1]NYtimes is reporting this morning that there has been a rise in
   violent crimes, especially in mid-sized and mid-western cities.

     While overall crime has been declining nationwide, police officials
     have been warning of a rise in murder, robbery and gun assaults
     since late 2005, particularly in midsize cities and the Midwest.
     Now, they say, two years of data indicates that the spike is more
     than an aberration.
     ... The research forum surveyed 56 cities and sheriffsâ departments
     â as small as Appleton Wis., about 100 miles northwest of
     Milwaukee, and as large as Chicago and Houston. Over all, from 2004
     to 2006, homicides increased 10 percent and robberies 12 percent.
     Aggravated assault, which is usually accompanied by the use of a
     weapon or by a means likely to produce severe injury or death,
     according to an F.B.I. Web site, increased at a relatively modest 3
     percent, but aggravated assaults with guns rose 10 percent. And
     some cities saw far higher spikes.

   Let's see.... did abortions suddenly become more expensive or more
   difficult to receive two decades ago? Is that how [2]Steve Levitt
   would explain the rise? After all, he asserted that abortion was one
   reason for the decline in violent crime until recently.
   Let's see.... did hand guns become less readily accessible in the past
   few years? Is that how [3]John Lott would explain the rise? Hasn't he
   argued that when citizens have the right to carry concealed weapons,
   that will deter criminals from using guns? I have no idea whether this
   growth in violent crime has been more pronounced in areas that have
   stronger gun-control laws.
   Neither of these possibilities is mentioned in the NYTimes article. In
   fact, the article seems to imply that violent crime is on the rise
   because more guns are more readily accessible.

     Local police departments blame several factors: the spread of
     methamphetamine use in some Midwestern and Western cities, gangs,
     high poverty and a record number of people being released from
     prison. But the biggest theme, they say, is easy access to guns and
     a willingness, even an eagerness, to settle disputes with them,
     particularly among young people.

   Other than a series of hand-wringing non-sequiturs, the article offers
   no explanation.

References

   1. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/09/us/09crime.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
   2. http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/
   3. http://www.johnrlott.com/