[Dean's World] Aziz P: people, not poll, powered primaries

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Posted by Aziz P:
people, not poll, powered primaries
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1199885425.shtml


   It is almost obscene how much I am enjoying this election year, and
   it's only just begun. I love being wrong because my predictions thus
   far have been the kind you make in a year where the dynamics are known
   and oppressive, where polls not people matter.

   But not this time. It seems instead that there is a poll backlash
   instead.

   Consider: Hillary took New Hampshire. That excites me to no end. How
   about this for a crazy theory? Obama's wave of independent support was
   imminent and then indies said to themselves, "he we like Obama. You
   know, we also like McCain. Since Obama's got this in the bag
   (according to all the polls), they reason, what the heck, let's
   support McCain instead and keep Romney down. Result? McCain sins the
   indies, and Obama loses them - making the race closer on the
   Democratic side. Meanwhile, Democrats who've been following the news
   are suddenly reading how after the meaningless Iowa caucuses, Hillary
   is supposed to close up shop, it's over, she's [1]deader than HD-DVD.
   Rather than depress turnout for her, it stimulates it.

   This is exciting because in many ways it's the opposite of 2004 where
   despite all the energy at the people level, the "inevitability" meme
   took over and Kerry utterly swamped Dean. The race is far closer and
   much more in play this time, and its because the polls aren't in
   charge.

   And another thing that is equally exciting is that the Democratic and
   Republican nominations are not running in a vacuum, but have some
   feedback between them, again at the people level. This makes this a
   truly national race, and it also shows that despite the partisan
   establishment, independents matter.

   The dynamic on Feb 5th will defy all expectation. Some states are
   closed primaries, others wide open, and others in between. Obama can't
   take the indies for granted, but neither can Clinton bank of the Dems,
   and who knows what the spillover from McCain is.

   If anything, this cycle has shown me just how awesome the
   Iowa-NH-go-first system can be, even if everyone else goes on eth same
   day for a truly national primary on feb 5th (and they might as well,
   to be honest).

   The only prediction I will make is that McCain, not Romney or
   Huckabee, takes the GOP nomination. As for the Democrats, I declared
   myself for Hillary a while back but [2]my recent issues analysis of
   their foreign policy, and [3]Hillary's position on Dubai Ports World,
   make me agnostic as to whether her "experience" is truly an asset. An
   excellent analysis by farangi at Chapati Mystery [4]questions the
   whole framing of "experience" as well.

   To be honest, I want to want Obama to win. The main reason I still am
   on Hillary's side of the fence is because I am partly cynical about
   where we are and where we need to go. And maybe if the rest of this
   primary goes the way of Iowa and NH, in other words an utter joyride,
   I might find the audacity for hope after all.

References

   1. http://www.haibane.info/2008/01/08/ces-the-silly-season/
   2. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2008/01/two-fronts.html
   3. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/06/president-carter-on-dubai-ports-world.html
   4. http://www.chapatimystery.com/archives/imperial_watch/omerica.html