[Dean's World] Dave Price: The Great Global Coldening of 2012?

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Dave Price:
The Great Global Coldening of 2012?
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1199381114.shtml


   A Russian coldenist [1]speaks:

     Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years.
     Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the
     irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah
     Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research
     laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer
     period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012.
     Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by
     2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.
     ...
     The temperature of the troposphere, the lowest and densest portion
     of the atmosphere, does not depend on the concentration of
     greenhouse gas emissionsâa point proved theoretically and
     empirically. True, probes of Antarctic ice shield, taken with bore
     specimens in the vicinity of the Russian research station Vostok,
     show that there are close links between atmospheric concentration
     of carbon dioxide and temperature changes. Here, however, we cannot
     be quite sure which is the cause and which the effect.

   Sorokhtin makes some other points, such that the CO2 concentration
   might affect atmospheric volatility but not temperature, and the
   oft-mentioned CO2 lag in historical temperature cycles, saying it may
   be explained by greater emissions from warmer oceans.
   I found this [2]gray-body emissivity argument interesting as well. Is
   it even possible for CO2 to warm the planet?
   Overall, I have to be a bit suspicious of the climate change industry.
   Yes, there are lots of scientists involved, but there are lots of
   ideologically-driven environmentalists involved too, and billions in
   funding are at stake. It still bothers me that James Hansen once
   worked on a project that ascribed global cooling to manmade
   pollutants; that really makes climate change activism look like a
   solution in search of a problem.
   Guess we'll find out who's right in a few years.

References

   1. http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html
   2. http://biocab.org/Emissivity_CO2.html