[Dean's World] Scott Kirwin: Where are the Hurricanes? Year 2

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Scott Kirwin:
Where are the Hurricanes? Year 2
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1191702356.shtml


   [1]Last year I wrote about the hurricanes that the Global Warming
   alarmists were threatening would be our fate for pumping carbon
   dioxide into the air. The year turned out to be a bit of a bust for
   hurricanes with [2]no hurricanes making landfall in the United States
   that year. This followed the 2005 season, t[3]he most active season
   ever recorded. [4]In May the National Weather Service, NOAA, and
   Accuweather researchers all predicted a "busier than normal" hurricane
   season. After the season took off with Tropical Storm Barry in May,
   the forecasters began lowering their forecasts starting in August.

   Initial season predictions forecast 7-10 hurricanes. With the
   Hurricane season winding down, we have had 4 so far. Given the drought
   that we are having here in the Midatlantic we could use some tropical
   moisture.

   My point: For all of our models, all of our knowledge about the
   atmosphere, land and oceans, the weather remains unpredictable. Given
   the dearth of hurricanes since 2005, one could leap to the conclusion
   that Global Warming is making things better. However, they would be
   making the same mistake that the AGW crowd made in 2005 by blaming
   Hurricane Katrina on SUVs instead of placing the blame where it
   squarely belonged: on the incompetent leadership of New Orleans and
   the state of Louisiana. (/cheap shot)

   I would almost argue that what we are seeing is a [5]reversion to the
   mean after hyperactive 2005 season, since by definition "[6]an extreme
   event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event."

   What does this mean for 2008? I'm not in the weather forecasting
   business, but I wouldn't be surprised if we had a "busier than normal
   year" next year. Who knows? Hurricanes by their very nature are
   unpredictable, and what kind of hubris is it to believe that we mere
   humans have mastered Nature?

References

   1. http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1155133659.shtml
   2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season
   3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season
   4. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18793289/
   5. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ReversiontotheMean.html
   6. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ReversiontotheMean.html