[Dean's World] Aziz P: those wacky mullahs!

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Aziz P:
those wacky mullahs!
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1195621840.shtml


   The Economist reveals that the [1]Ayatollah apocalyptic quote that
   Norman Podhoretz is throwing around [2]doesn't actually seem to exist.

   Norman Podhoretz, when pressed for a source, [3]says it was Amir
   Taheri. And that the quote was from 1980. And that the dog ate the
   quote in subsequent compilations of the Ayatollah's speeches. thus
   spake the Tool:

     The quote, along with many other passages, disappeared from several
     subsequent editions as the Islamic Republic tried to mobilize
     nationalistic feelings against Iraq, which had invaded Iran in
     1980.

     The practice of editing and even censoring Khomeini to suit the
     circumstances is widely known by Iranian scholars. This is how
     Professor Ahmad Karimi-Hakkak, the Director of the Center for
     Persian Studies at the University of Maryland and a specialist in
     Islamic censorship, states the problem: âKhumayniâs [sic] speeches
     are regularly published in fresh editions wherein new selections
     are made, certain references deleted, and various adjustments
     introduced depending on the stateâs current preoccupationâ (Persian
     Studies in North America, 1994).

   First of all, Amir Taheri is not exactly a reliable source. He
   essentially invented - or at best was spoon-fed - [4]the story about
   jews wearing yellow ribbons in Iran. The National Post issued a
   retraction, but Taheri stood by his "facts".

   But let us take Taheri at his word. Suppose that the Ayatollaah
   catually did utter those words in 1980. Is this even remotely relevant
   to the question of whether Iran can be deterred? Julian Sanchez
   [5]says it succinctly:

     the broader question is whether Iran should be treated as a
     potentially suicidal nation run by apocalyptic madmen, or as an
     aggressive but ultimately familiar sort of antagonist, motivated by
     raison d'Ãtat and therefore deterrable. And if we're looking for
     insight into that question, then the fact that Khomenei may have
     uttered the quotation given above in revolutionary days strikes me
     as far, far less significant than the fact that Iran's "Khomeinist"
     government has since seen fit to toss it down the memory hole.

   In other words, the very act of censorship which Taheri claims is
   occurring to sanitize the Ayatollah's utterances in the revolutionary
   era nearly three decades ago, actually demonstrates rather clearly
   that the modern ruling elite of Iran is eminently deterrable, and not
   wacky insane at all.

   And the bottom line is that Iran is totally outmatched, and knows it.
   Blake Hounshell, writing at Foreign Policy Magazine, [6]does the
   tally:

     Let's take the case of Israel, which would theoretically be the
     country most threatened by an Iran with nuclear weapons. Israel
     reportedly has upwards of 200 nuclear bombs and/or warheads and
     second-strike capability. Notably, Israel has three nuclear-armed
     submarines; Iran has no technology that can detect them.

     In the extremely unlikely event that the mullahs are foolish enough
     to launch their unreliable missiles on Tel Aviv and/or Jerusalem
     (most likely killing tens of thousands of Muslims and destroying
     several major Islamic holy sites in the process), Israel will
     annihilate Iran. With their submarines, the Israelis can do so even
     if their entire country is destroyed first. Boom. That's
     deterrence.

   For all [7]Anne Applebaum's hand-wringing about the only option being
   "fingers crossed", the simple truth is that a nuclear Iran is far less
   a threat to Israel's existence, let alone ours, than the Soviets were
   during the Cold War. And recall the [8]rhetoric of that age:

     At some point amidst the amiability and the inability to reach
     every agreement, Khrushchev broke out in one of his flights of
     rocket rhetoric. "Technicians make me laugh," he said, "when they
     argue over the question of whether five or maybe six rockets armed
     with thermonuclear warheads might be needed to demolish Great
     Britain. We have at least twelve already pointed at that target."
     And then, looking at his guest, Khrushchev remarked that Italy,
     with its allied missile bases, could expect its share. "This is not
     a threat," he added with a straight face, "just a warning."

   Deter that! oh wait, we did. We buried them.

References

   1. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/podhoretz/1340
   2. http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2007/11/is_iran_suicidal_or_deterrable.cfm
   3. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/podhoretz/1340
   4. http://cityofbrass.blogspot.com/2006/05/amir-taheri-tool.html
   5. http://juliansanchez.com/notes/archives/2007/11/its_just_like_ayatollah.php
   6. http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/7093
   7. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR2007111901185.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
   8. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,895552,00.html