[Dean's World] Dean: Hezbollah Needs Peace?

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Posted by Dean:
Hezbollah Needs Peace? 
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1178816725.shtml


   Edward Luttwak has a fascinating essay that argues, startlingly, that
   last year's war with Hezbollah wasn't the disaster it's been made out
   to be. He starts with some fascinating history:

     In the immediate aftermath of the 1973 October War there was much
     joy in the Arab world. The myth of Israeli invincibility had been
     shattered by the surprise Egyptian crossing of the Suez Canal and
     the Syrian offensive that swept across the Golan Heights. In
     Israel, there was harsh criticism of political and military chiefs
     alike, who were blamed for the loss of close to 3,000 soldiers in a
     war that ended without a clear victory. Prime Minister Golda Meir,
     Defence Minister Moshe Dayan, the Chief of Staff David Elazar and
     the chief of military intelligence were all discredited and soon
     replaced.

     It was only later that a sense of proportion was regained,
     ironically by the Egyptian and Syrian leaders before anyone else.

   Then he does a pretty surprisingly good job of comparing that 1973
   conflict (which everyone now agrees was a decisive and positive moment
   in Israeli history) to the current situation, and concludes:

     For that very reason, the outcome of the war is likely to be viewed
     in the long term as more satisfactory than many now seem to believe
     it. Nasrallah is not another Arafat, who was fighting for eternal
     Palestine rather than the present generation of Palestinians (whose
     prosperity and safety he was always willing to sacrifice for the
     cause). Nasrallah has a political constituency, and it happens to
     be centered in southern Lebanon. Implicitly accepting
     responsibility for having started the war, Nasrallah has directed
     his Hezbollah to focus on rapid reconstruction in villages and
     towns, right up to the Israeli border. He cannot start another
     round of fighting because that would destroy everything again. Yet
     another unexpected result of the war is that Nasrallah's power-base
     in southern Lebanon is now a hostage to Hezbollah's good behaviour.

   But you should [1]read the whole thing.

References

   1. http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=688&WT.srch=1