[Dean's World] Dave Schuler: Passing the Turing Test

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Dave Schuler:
Passing the Turing Test
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1178751918.shtml


   I guess it was brought to mind by [1]Dave Price's post and I don't
   know if it's been mentioned around here before but Mitch Kapor,
   designer of Lotus 1-2-3, the spreadsheet program that really made
   waves on the IBM PC, and Ray Kurzweil, OCR and speech recognition
   pioneer, have a standing bet for $10,000 at [2]Long Bets as to whether
   any computer or machine intelligence will have passed the "Turing
   Test" by 2029.

   If you're not familiar with the [3]Turing Test, it's a test, proposed
   in 1950 by mathematician, cryptographer, and cybernetics pioneer Alan
   Turing for determining whether a machine can truly be said to be
   intelligent.

   I think that Dave's predictions for industrial robots are a little
   sanguine. Sales of industrial robots has been cyclic for the last 20
   years or so--the peaks get a little higher and the valleys a little
   shallower but there's no obvious break out. And price declines are
   flattening sharply. [4]Here's an interesting site with lots of pretty
   charts and statistics on robot usage and sales for you.

   Long Bets is an interesting site, too, if you don't know about it
   already. Quite a number of interesting bets with genuine long green
   being put down.

References

   1. http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1178728150.shtml
   2. http://www.longbets.org/1
   3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test
   4. http://www.ifr.org/statistics/keyData2005.htm