[Dean's World] Dave Price: AQ On The Run

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Dave Price:
AQ On The Run
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1184691641.shtml


   Jack Kelly [1]notes the progress we've made in Sunni Arab Iraq:

     "I will speak for my son who right now is bored out of his mind in
     Ramadi, because he hasn't heard a shot fired in combat now in about
     six or seven weeks," Bruce said.
     ...
     Most of al Qaida's leaders and many of its foot soldiers escaped
     from Baquba, and probably will try to establish another "capital"
     elsewhere. But they're running out of places to go.
     "They can't go south to (overwhelmingly Shia) Basra," Mr. Yon told
     Mr. Hewitt. "There are only a few places they can go to in Anbar,
     and these are drying up. There's fewer places in Diyala, and what's
     left is drying up. They certainly can't go to the Kurdish regions,
     because they will be killed."

   Besides the troop numbers, there are two major differences between the
   "surge" strategy and what we've been doing the last 4 years: one,
   we're attacking all the Al Qaeda sanctuaries simultaneously, so they
   can't just run from one to the other Whack-A-Mole style; two, we're
   establishing permanent joint outposts with the Iraqi forces, so they
   can't come back to places we've cleared.
   Many of the non-AQ elements appear to be throwing in the towel,
   accepting political settlement at the grass-roots level even as the
   national parliament [2]struggles to reach a consensus on
   reconciliatory legislation. It will be very interesting to see what
   happens to Sunni politics if the provincial elections are held by the
   end of the year as promised by Maliki.
   Meanwhile, the newest NIE supports the two-Dave hypothesis that no
   matter what happens politically, [3]America will not withdraw from
   Iraq if means leaving AQ sanctuaries in Iraq:

     The terrorist network al-Qaeda will likely leverage its contacts
     and capabilities in Iraq to mount an attack on U.S. soil, according
     to a new National Intelligence Estimate on threats to the United
     States.

References

   1. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/first_anbar_now_baquba_is_al_q.html
   2. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/17/world/middleeast/17cnd-Iraq.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
   3. http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-07-17-intelligence-estimate_N.htm?csp=34