[Dean's World] Aziz P: Kagan: Time to talk to Iran

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Aziz P:
Kagan: Time to talk to Iran
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1196914132.shtml


   Robert Kagan is no tranzi progressive moonbat leftist. Unlike the
   Podhoretz/Kristol/etc pundit tribe, he's always been an intellectually
   honest and genuinely thouhgtful policy wonk first and foremost. That
   he largely stands on the opposite side of the foreign policy debate
   from my opinions is in my opinion a very good thing. He's been wrong
   before, but always in a way I can respect.

   So it's hardly a surprise that Kagan steps up to the plate with
   respect to Iran and [1]pronounces diplomacy as the only available
   option remaining to the Bush Administration:

     Regardless of what one thinks about the National Intelligence
     Estimate's conclusion that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program
     in 2003 -- and there is much to question in the report -- its
     practical effects are indisputable. The Bush administration cannot
     take military action against Iran during its remaining time in
     office, or credibly threaten to do so, unless it is in response to
     an extremely provocative Iranian action. A military strike against
     suspected Iranian nuclear facilities was always fraught with risk.
     For the Bush administration, that option is gone.

     Neither, however, will the administration make further progress in
     winning international support for tighter sanctions on Iran. Fear
     of American military action was always the primary reason Europeans
     pressured Tehran. Fear of an imminent Iranian bomb was secondary.
     Bringing Europeans together in support of serious sanctions was
     difficult before the NIE. Now it is impossible.

   Kagan doesn't stop there, however. He goes into exacting detail about
   what we should talk with Iran about, why, and with what objectives in
   mind. He points out that far from seeming to be an act of weakness, we
   (the US) are actually in a position of strength:

     The United States is not in a position of weakness. The
     embarrassment of the NIE will be fleeting. Strategic realities are
     more durable. America remains powerful in the world and in the
     Middle East. The success of the surge policy in Iraq means that the
     United States may be establishing a sustainable position in the
     region -- a far cry from a year ago, when it seemed about to be
     driven out. If Iraq is on the road to recovery, this shifts the
     balance against Iran, which was already isolated.

   (note that this concurs with the policy analysis by Anthony Cordesman
   of teh CSIS that there is a "[2]tenuous case for strategic patience in
   Iraq" PDF link).

   There's [3]a lot more in the original article and I highly encourage
   giving it a full read.

References

   1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120401146.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
   2. http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/080607_iraq-strategicpatience.pdf
   3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120401146.html?hpid=opinionsbox1