[Dean's World] Dave Price: Battle of the Surges

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Dave Price:
Battle of the Surges
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1175797570.shtml


   Daniel Henninger notes that [1]there are two escalations going on
   here.

     On Feb. 10, Gen. Petraeus arrived to take command of these forces
     in Baghdad. In the second week of February, U.S. troops conducted
     20,000 patrols compared to 7,400 the week before.
     On Feb. 16, the House of Representatives passed a resolution,
     246-182, to oppose the mission. Nancy Pelosi: "The stakes in Iraq
     are too high to recycle proposals that have little prospect for
     success." That might not be true. It might indeed succeed.
     Through February and into March, the U.S.-Iraqi forces moved into
     neighborhoods on the edge of Sadr City, stronghold of Shiite
     militias. "While the house-to-house operations continued," Ms.
     Kagan writes, "U.S. and Iraqi forces also interdicted the flow of
     fighters and supplies through those neighborhoods into Sadr City."
     Meanwhile, House Democrats worked on a bill to force the withdrawal
     of U.S. troops by fall 2008.

   The success of Petraeus' surge really seems to have less to do with
   the troop numbers and more with the de-FOBbing of our forces and
   concomitant changes in rules of engagement. Establishing small
   permanent garrisons throughout Baghdad, rather than keeping troops in
   large Forward Operating Bases appears to be reversing the trend of
   ever-increasing violence and finally allowing commerce to resume and
   reconstruction to begin. Ultimately, of course, the outcome depends on
   Iraqis:

     Testifying last Wednesday to a House Armed Services subcommittee,
     military historian Fred Kagan, who has criticized administration
     policies, noted that the Iraqi army is "now larger than the
     standing armies of France and Great Britain." The nine Iraqi army
     battalions called for in the surge have arrived, at over 90% of
     programmed strength. "They are taking casualties, inflicting
     casualties on the enemy and helping to maintain and establish peace
     for the people of Baghdad," said Mr. Kagan.

   A real shift in strategy has finally occurred, and the Iraqi forces
   seem to be on board. Now the question is whether the military surge
   can set the conditions for eventual victory before the political surge
   forces them off the field of battle.

References

   1. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/04/will_dems_thwart_success_in_ir.html