[Dean's World] Dean: Another View

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Posted by Dean:
Another View
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1161927984.shtml


   The following article in Barron's is interesting, if only for its
   counterintuitive nature: they predict [1]only mild gains for Democrats
   in November, by ignoring polling data entirely and concentrating
   instead on how well a candidate raises funds in his or her local
   state. Those with superior fundraising they consider the likely
   winner.

   Note that they aren't saying that the candidate who spends the most or
   has the biggest warchest wins. No, it's pretty specific: they suggest
   that the candidate with the most cash raised from individual donors in
   their state or district tend to win. Because such donations are
   pseudomarkers for how efficient the candidate's grass roots support
   and organization is. Which I find entirely believable. This would also
   explain why Presidential candidates with the most money so often lose.

   Anyway it should be interesting to look back after the elections and
   see which of the prognosticators were right and which wrong, eh?

References

   1. http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB116138396438799484-IdCXhh7Ie9DTbX74S9pa7pqHYY4_20061120.html?mod=9_0002_b_free_features