[Dean's World] Dave Price: 12-18 Months To Hand Over All Security to Iraqis

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Posted by Dave Price:
12-18 Months To Hand Over All Security to Iraqis
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1161704469.shtml


   That's the [1]assessment of General Casey, after extensive
   consultations with Iraqis.

     "It's going to take another 12 to 18 months or so until I believe
     the Iraqi security forces are completely capable of taking over
     responsibility for their own security â still probably with some
     level of support from us, but that will be asked for by the
     Iraqis." Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said at
     a Tuesday news conference in the heavily fortified Green Zone in
     Baghdad.

   Personally, I think Casey is being a bit optimistic; 24-30 months
   seems more realistic to me, but I'll defer to his much better informed
   opinion (it's also possible this is just a goal they're setting
   knowing it probably won't be met, but giving them something to aim
   for). I also think it's likely the violence is going to continue to be
   fairly bad for a lot longer, perhaps a decade or more, as the
   shaking-out process continues in the power vacuum left by the removal
   of Saddam's repressive regime -- but of course even at its worst the
   current violence is still considerably lower than the average 83,000
   per year killed during the former tyrant's rule, and does not begin to
   approach the death tolls of the country's major conflicts of those
   times.
   This is especially interesting with regards to the security situation:

     Khalilzad said that radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada
     al-Sadr, who controls the violent Mahdi Army militia, had agreed to
     U.S. demands that the government develop a timeline for reducing
     violence and stabilizing the political situation in the country.

   It's never been certain that Sadr is necessarily more than an enemy of
   convenience (i.e. capitalizing politically on the unpopularity of the
   occupation among many Shia, but not really committed to opposing the
   occupation with force of arms). Like everyone in Iraq right now, he's
   hedging his bets between the military and political and adjusting as
   the situation develops. It's important to realize too that Sadr is not
   only not the monolithic unquestioned commander of the Mahdi "Army"
   militias (the more ambitious groups actually [2]try to kill him
   periodically). Sadr's game seems to be to let the IA and Coalition
   attrit the more radical militias, while decrying such actions to gain
   internal Shia political advantage.
   The most interesting aspect to the Sadr-related conflicts so far is
   the relative competence of the Iraqi Army. They seem have to 5:1 or
   10:1 kill ratios in every engagement with Sadr's people, who are
   little more than street gangs with AKs and RPGs. With the Kurdish
   militias remaining essentially passive, the IA seems to already be the
   pre-eminent native active military force in the country, which bodes
   well for the continuity of the elected government.
   We should remember there were major civil wars involving these
   militias, much worse than the current violence, in every decade of
   Saddam's rule; he was just the biggest, baddest, best-funded gangster
   in a country full of them. Many may eventually enter the political
   process if it seems to be in their interest to do so, but it will take
   a lot of time and effort before theyâre all dealt with, and the
   violence may get a lot worse in the meantime. Ultimately, though, most
   of the task of civilizing Iraq will fall to Iraqis.

References

   1. http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-10-24-US-Iraq_x.htm?csp=34
   2. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1769558