[Dean's World] Ali Eteraz: Attempted Islamist Coup In Pakistan

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Ali Eteraz:
Attempted Islamist Coup In Pakistan
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1160849491.shtml


   While Musharraf was away peddling his book, Islamist groups [1]within
   the Pakistani Air Force were planning a coup, with rockets aimed at
   Musharraf's house. The plot has been uncovered and so far 40 people
   arrested. By the way, after the ISI (intelligence agency), Pakistanis
   truly and severely love their Air Force.

   Before the Democrats start to use the threat of Pakistan's nuclear
   warheads falling into Islamist hands as a way to slam Bush, and before
   the commentators on the various Right Wing websites start to suggest
   military action against Pakistan in order to rid it of its Islamist
   components, I just want to point out that the most friendly of all
   Pakistani dictators -- General Zia ul Haq -- was an Islamist.

   I don't say this in order to make us feel bad about ourselves. I say
   this to reveal that the "Islamist" tag doesn't mean the same thing in
   every context. Islamists within the Pakistani military are shrewd
   people. They would not simply start a nuclear war with India. Not only
   that, but as the Zia example makes clear: they can be bought. (Zia's
   grand son is now a smoking/drinking party boy in DC and Zia's son Ejaz
   son is working to repeal the Islamist rape laws Zia imposed).

   Islamists within the Pakistani context want a couple of major things:
   the country's internal laws to be totally theocratic (a Sunni Iran);
   to support the "freedom fighting" movement in Kashmir (which while
   once was a true rebel movement against Indian occupation has regressed
   into nihilistic militancy); to permanently remove Shi'a and Ismaili
   Muslims from positions of power; to prevent Pakistan from
   participating in International financial deals in which interest is
   involved. These are the things, they want, in theory.

   But reality is very different. The first major reality is that if
   Sunni Islamists take over in Pakistan, they will immediately become
   Iran's mortal enemies. I'm sure you guys don't know this, but in 1979,
   when Sunni Zia took over in Pakistan, Iran immediately sponsored and
   then inserted a militant Shia group into Pakistan called the Jafari
   Militia (I forget their Urdu name). In retaliation to this Shia
   militia, Sunnis outfitted and armed the nefarious Sipah-e-Sahaba
   (later involved in the murder of Daniel Pearl and other straight up
   terror attacks). So, if Musharraf goes out, Iran will be very
   concerned about the 20% of Pakistani which is Shia and immediately
   Hizbollah will have an Eastern Wing. While this might look bad from
   the American perspective, I actually consider it a good thing (again
   from the American perspective) because it keeps the Islamists busy
   with each other.

   The other thing that will happen is that the Islamists will want to
   buy arms on the international market (which immediately means that
   they have to participate in the international economic system). Not
   only that, but there is little likelihood that Pakistan's government
   could isolate itself economically. Dubai's huge investment banks now
   run Pakistani banks, and Dubai has no interest in letting go of its
   economic control over Pakistan. Dubai Islamic Bank owns the Pakistani
   power company, for example. So, even if there is a Sunni Islamist
   group, I don't see them succeeding in isolating Pakistan from the rest
   of the world.

   Where the Islamists will make the most headway won't be in the
   international arena at all. They will instead have a huge impact in
   the domestic social values sector. Madrassas will be better funded
   (they are funded now too, but they have to meet certain requirements
   like teaching English); TV Channels and Films will be censored (Zia
   used to show some damn boring movies at 4 pm twice a year); they will
   restrict women's rights and turn back the clock on all the reformist
   legislation that would help women's rights and the rights of religious
   minority groups.

   Conclusion: an Islamist coup in Pakistan can be easily dealt with by a
   shrewd American administration who knows how to play various Islamist
   elements against each other, and then use the financial carrot to lure
   people to its side. However, in terms of social and domestic life, an
   Islamist coup will be hell for Pakistanis.

   Some other day I will talk about the schizophrenic political impulse
   in Pakistan which is a remnant of the fact that of its two major
   founders, one was an Islamist and the other a secularist.

References

   1. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HJ14Df02.html