[Dean's World] Dave Price: Straight Reporting and Strait Jackets

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Posted by Dave Price:
Straight Reporting and Strait Jackets
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1164057886.shtml


   Michael Fumento returns to [1]Ramadi, and [2]finds progress.

     And from what I found, we are defeating them. It's painfully slow,
     and our men there are still dying in inordinate numbers from a
     broad variety of attacks. But a multitude of factors, including
     tribal cooperation, the continual introduction of more Iraqi army
     and police, the beginning of public works projects, the building of
     more Forward Operating Bases (FOBs), the installation of more small
     operational posts (OPs), and plunking down company-sized Combat
     Operation Posts (COPs) smack in the middle of hostile territory are
     destroying both the size and the mobility of the enemy. This time
     the rats are dying in place.
     ...
     Historically, successful counterinsurgency efforts have involved
     pacifying areas by plopping small garrisons with interlocking
     communications into enemy territory and sending out patrols to
     gather information and engage the enemy.
     ...
     The military refers to COP use as "the inkblot strategy." One dot
     spreads into a bigger spot. Further, the troops are practically
     forced to work with the locals. That means building up networks of
     indigenous people who know the terrain, culture, and other people
     better than any forces--even one from the same country but another
     province--ever could. This also allows for more direct contact
     between the leader of the military force and the local leadership.
     All of this creates a force multiplier.

   This seems to augur well for the military effort. That strategy of
   expanding by establishing small, mutually-supporting garrisons is
   time-tested over millennia and depends only on the will of the
   conquering force to endure.
   We badly need more of this kind of on-the-ground reporting, so be sure
   to [3]send a donation to Bill Ardolino to help send him on his way
   (the link says Moonbat Research Fund, but I haven't seen any
   insurgents [4]in pink bodysuits yet; maybe Bill will find some).
   Also worth reading: Arthur Herman [5]argues that Iran's trump card in
   its drive to acquire nuclear weapons is the threat is to the Straits
   of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world's oil passes. He outlines a
   very plausible scenario, reminiscent of [6]Operation Praying Mantis,
   under which the U.S. could, with mostly air and sea resources (very
   little of which are tied down in Iraq), seize control of the straits
   and at the same time cut off the font of the regime's power, grinding
   their military and economy to a halt without a ground war, potentially
   leading to revolution that would eliminate the need for externally
   executed regime change (relevant excerpt below the jump).

   ([7]show)

     Our next step would be to declare a halt to all shipments of
     Iranian oil while guaranteeing the safety of tankers carrying
     non-Iranian oil and the platforms of other Gulf states. We would
     then guarantee this guarantee by launching a comprehensive air
     campaign aimed at destroying Iranâs air-defense system, its
     air-force bases and communications systems, and finally its missile
     sites along the Gulf coast. At that point the attack could move to
     include Iranâs nuclear facilitiesânot only the âhardâ sites but
     also infrastructure like bridges and tunnels in order to prevent
     the shifting of critical materials from one to site to another.
     Above all, the air attack would concentrate on Iranâs gasoline
     refineries. It is still insufficiently appreciated that Iran, a
     huge oil exporter, imports nearly 40 percent of its gasoline from
     foreign sources, including the Gulf states. With its refineries
     gone and its storage facilities destroyed, Iranâs cars, trucks,
     buses, planes, tanks, and other military hardware would run dry in
     a matter of weeks or even days. This alone would render impossible
     any major countermoves by the Iranian army. (For its part, the
     Iranian navy is aging and decrepit, and its biggest asset, three
     Russian-made Kilo-class submarines, should and could be destroyed
     before leaving port.)
     The scenario would not end here. With the systematic reduction of
     Iranâs capacity to respond, an amphibious force of Marines and
     special-operations forces could seize key Iranian oil assets in the
     Gulf, the most important of which is a series of 100 offshore wells
     and platforms built on Iranâs continental shelf. North and South
     Pars offshore fields, which represent the future of Iranâs oil and
     natural-gas industry, could also be seized, while Kargh Island at
     the far western edge of the Persian Gulf, whose terminus pumps the
     oil from Iranâs most mature and copiously producing fields (Ahwaz,
     Marun, and Gachsaran, among others), could be rendered virtually
     useless. By the time the campaign was over, the United States
     military would be in a position to control the flow of Iranian oil
     at the flick of a switch.

   ([8]hide)

   This option has a lot of appeal; the reliance on exporting oil is
   certainly Iran's Achilles heel. Of course, the obvious problem is what
   cutting off Iranian oil would do to world petroleum prices -- but
   Iran's government is almost totally dependent on that oil money and
   would likely either capitulate quickly or be overthrown, and [9]it may
   be less of an issue soon anyway. Is a free (or at least
   nuclear-weapons-free) Iran worth a painful but probably short-term
   bump in oil prices?

References

   1. http://www.ifilm.com/ifilmdetail/2726055
   2. http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/985qugel.asp
   3. http://www.indcjournal.com/archives/002816.php
   4. http://www.indcjournal.com/archives/001048.php
   5. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/article.asp?aid=12204030_1
   6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis
   7. file://localhost/var/www/powerblogs/deanesmay/posts/1164057886.html
   8. file://localhost/var/www/powerblogs/deanesmay/posts/1164057886.html
   9. http://instapundit.com/archives2/2006/11/post_443.php