[Dean's World] Dave Price: Troops, Tropes, and Traditions

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Posted by Dave Price:
Troops, Tropes, and Traditions
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1163700686.shtml


   Glenn today [1]links a [2]follow-up piece by Bruse Rolston to the
   widely-cited [3]William Stuntz article calling for a major troop
   increase on the basis that such a troop increase would decrease
   violence in Iraq. Aside from [4]the point made by General Abizaid
   yesterday (that a troop increase could be detrimental to ISF training
   as it disincentivizes them to learn to handle the problem themselves)
   there are three problems with the assumptions and methods of both
   these analyses.
   One, any calculation of troops levels should include the ISF. Once you
   throw them into the mix, itâs immediately obvious that if any
   correlation exists, itâs that the more troops are involved, the more
   violence there is. This is intuitively appealing when you consider the
   nature of Iraq. The situation, especially in Anbar, is like that of
   towns in the Old West that have been taken over by outlaws: the
   violence is fairly subdued until the lawmen show up to contest their
   rule. When we removed Saddam we chopped off the top of a societal
   pyramid of thugs, but it will take a long time to grind down the large
   base of long-entrenched local gangsters and wannabe warlords who are
   violently opposed to a democratic political process.
   (Modern Westerners tend to view violence as an aberration from the
   norm, but here we are talking about a country that spent three decades
   as a blood-soaked police state bouncing between major civil wars,
   invasions of its neighbors, and coalition invasions/bombing; Iraqis
   have become intimately acquainted with violence as a means of
   acquiring and exercising power, so itâs not surprising that the habit
   is dying hard. Auspiciously, polling tends to indicate the insurgents,
   militias and terrorists are not popular, while the ISF enjoy a
   relatively high level of support; it seems most Iraqis see the
   benefits of democracy and rule of law, and with several hundred ISF
   being killed in action every month, many are also as willing to die
   for their cause as the enemies of freedom.)
   Two, the statements on U.S. troop numbers seem to mostly ignore an
   obvious inversion of the postulated cause and effect relationship in
   the data: we know U.S. troop levels increase after violence does
   because the military comes right and states that fact.
   Three, reducing violence is not our primary goal, nor should it be.
   What is most important is that Iraqâs constitutional democracy be
   defended, and that responsibility for that defense be gradually
   transitioned to capable, committed Iraqi hands. Peace requires two
   willing parties, and we have little control what the insurgents,
   militias, and terrorists decide to do. Freedom, on the other hand,
   requires the will to fight those who would take it away.

References

   1. http://instapundit.com/archives2/2006/11/post_378.php
   2. http://www.snappingturtle.net/flit/archives/2006_11_14.html#005996
   3. http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/933jaydy.asp?pg=1
   4. http://metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20061116-082335-3574r