[Dean's World] Dave Price: Of Ralph and Raisins

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Dave Price:
Of Ralph and Raisins
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1162490209.shtml


   Ralph Peters has [1]turned pessimistic on the war:

     I supported this war, but the deteriorating situation is starting
     to convince me that we canât win. Those of us who hoped that the
     Iraqis could achieve democracy were wrong â and their failure has
     implications for the entire region.
     â¦
     Iraq is failing. No honest observer can conclude otherwise. Even
     six months ago, there was hope. Now the chances for a democratic,
     unified Iraq are dwindling fast.

   Really, to hear such hyperventilation youâd think weâd never held
   three elections, seated a constitutional unity government, or trained
   300,000 ISF who, despite their problems, [2]take over more territory
   every week. And while Iraqâs liberties leave much to be desired by
   Western standards, the Index of Political Freedom nevertheless now
   [3]rates Iraq as one of the freest countries in the Mideast. Yes,
   there is violence, but that's hardly a novel situation for Iraq:
   apparently people find it easy to forget that in addition to two major
   wars of aggression, under Saddamâs regime Iraqis also suffered two
   major sectarian civil wars. There were around 83,000 deaths a year on
   average under that government, far higher than the current tolls. It's
   not likely that current levels of violence pose an existential threat
   to the effort to democratize and liberalize Iraq.
   Victor Hanson [4]notes that such fickle fecklessness is often more ex
   post facto perception than perspicacity:

     In 1982 I picked early and thereby avoided a horrendous tropical
     storm that ruined the industry, saving thereby 200 tons of raisins
     that sold for over $1400 a ton; in 1983 I picked early again, the
     clouds blew away, and in weeks of perfect weather I produced lousy,
     sour, and light raisins, selling scarcely 140 tons for $400 and
     lost far more than I had made the year before. I was neither a
     genius the year before, nor a fool the next, but rather did the
     best I could in both years, recognizing that we are still subject
     to fate, despite our vaunted technology and knowledge. I am not
     advising helplessness, simply some recognition that the verdict is
     out on Iraq, and what looks bad today, might look far better very
     soonâand that erstwhile supporters turned vehement critics might
     well reinvent themselves a third time.

References

   1. http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2006/11/post_6.html
   2. http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2006/11/unreported-good-news-from-iraq-vs.html
   3. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4450582.stm
   4. http://victordavishanson.pajamasmedia.com/2006/10/25/post_3.php