[Dean's World] Rudy Rummel: Who Are The Mortacracies? Part III

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Rudy Rummel:
Who Are The Mortacracies? Part III
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1146709175.shtml


   In [1]Part II, I used a people's life expectancy from birth (LE) as an
   indicator of whether they were ruled by a mortacracy or not. But is LE
   enough?

   Perhaps, in addition to LE, I should consider a wider measure of human
   underdevelopment that takes into account LE's social and economic
   context, and its high and low. We have this from the UN's [2]Human
   Development Report for 2005 It used a human development index (HDI)
   based on a people's income, education and health. Its purpose is not
   to give a complete picture of human development, but to provide a
   measure of human well-being (see [3]here for the indices involved, and
   their calculations). This is precisely what is impacted by
   mortacracies.

   The report also provides a Life Expectancy Index (LEI), which among
   other indices goes into calculating the HDI. It is:

   (a country's life expectancy minus the world low) / (world high minus
                                world low).

   Thus, the lowest LEI would be 0, and the high would be 1.0. As to
   calculating the HDI, each of the indices that go into it is determined
   as is LEI above, and HDI is an average of them all. Thus, HDI also
   varies from a low of 0 to a high of 1.0. The 2003 HDI plotted against
   LEI is shown in the chart below (If it is unclear or does not show,
   click [4]here)

                           [HDI.VS.LEI.2003.GIF]

   Since LEI is a linear transformation of LE, the same curve would
   obtain even if LE were used in place of LEI.

   The best fitting curvilinear function for the plot is the natural
   logarithmic one shown, with a correlation R^2=.82. It accounts for 82
   percent of the variance between HDI and LEI. As the well being of a
   people increases as measure by HDI, there is an increasingly close
   relationship between this well being and their life expectancy. This
   is clear from the chart, where along the fitted log curve, the
   distribution of countries (blue dots) around the curve tightens into a
   cone at the highest level. Something is causing the wide distribution
   of countries at the low end of HDI and LEI, therefore, which I argue
   is caused by mortacracies.

   (Continued [5]here)

References

   1. http://freedomspeace.blogspot.com/2006/05/who-are-mortacracies-part-ii.html
   2. http://hdr.undp.org/
   3. http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/indices/
   4. http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/HDI.VS.LEI.2003.GIF
   5. http://freedomspeace.blogspot.com/2006/05/who-are-mortacracies-part-iii.html