[Dean's World] Dean: 2006: Year of the Democrat?

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Posted by Dean:
2006: Year of the Democrat?
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1142594914.shtml


   Gallup reports that on a generic question among registered voters
   nationwide, purely on party preference, [1]Democrats lead Republicans
   55% to 39%, the largest lead for Democrats since 1982.

   In 1982, the Republicans had no net loss in the Senate but they
   [2]lost 27 House seats. If Republicans had a similar loss this year,
   it would mean they would keep control of the Senate, but would easily
   win control of the House of Representatives.

   It seems likely that an impeachment resolution would come out of the
   House against Bush if that did happen. Because Democratic rage at the
   President is at a fever pitch at least equal to what Republicans felt
   against President Clinton in 1998.

   There are a few things to consider in looking at such numbers,
   however. First, it's more than 7 months until election day, and that's
   a long, looooong time in politics. On the other hand, the Republican
   base hasn't rallied around any particular cause at the moment, and
   Democrats are united on one thing: their absolute conviction that the
   Bush administration is simply awful.

   It's shaping up to be another bitter, acrimonious election year.

   The two things that would seem to militate against a sweeping
   Democratic victory are:

   1) With computer modeling increasingly the norm across the nation, and
   gerrymandering increasingly accepted as simply "the way things are,"
   it seems likely that it's going to be harder to flip seats from "R" to
   "D" or vice-versa.

   2) In 1982, America's economy was in simply terrible shape. It's not
   at all clear that the average American feels the economy is in
   horrible shape this year. Yes, there is widespread pessimism about it,
   but is it enough?

   3) Ultimately, all politics is local. How many voters will actually
   say "yes my Republican representative needs to retire?" Democrats need
   that to happen in only about 15 districts (out of 435) to make the
   House change hands. Can they do it?

   Democratic partisans are supremely confident, and they shouldn't be.
   Republican partisans are quick to dismiss the possibilities, which
   they shouldn't be.

   It's going to be an interesting year.

   My own gut? I say Democrats will take control of the House this year,
   and Bush will be impeached or nearly impeached in 2007. If so, he like
   Clinton (and Johnson) won't be removed from office, and Democrats will
   look very bad for having tried, and will pay a price in 2008.

   But that's just my guess. What do you think?

References

   1. http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=21928
   2. http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=21928