[Dean's World] Aziz P: Sectarian violence or civil war?

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Posted by Aziz P:
Sectarian violence or civil war?
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1141335066.shtml


   Dan Darling has an important [1]piece at Threatwatch that analyzes
   whether the sectarian violence in the aftermath of the Samariyya
   bombing amounts to a genuine civil war or not. FWIW I agree that the
   sectarian violence after the Samariyya bombing probably did not amount
   to a genuine civil war, and that if anything Iraq has already been
   embroiled in a low-level civil war of sorts ever since the first
   post-invasion bombing at the shrines of Najaf that killed an ayatollah
   (Hakim?).

   However, my opinion is that if a successful destruction of the shrines
   in Karbala or Najaf is carried out, then we will assuredly see a true
   and genuine civil war, with likely breakup of the country resulting.
   I've previously mentioned that in my view, [2]partition of Iraq is
   tantamount to defeat of our goals (however you wish to define them).

   Also, I don't really buy into the Iranian/Sadr angle for Samarriya, as
   [3]others have suggested. If anything I think that Iran benefits mroe
   from a united Iraq dominated politically by the Shi'a rather than a
   sectarian breakup. I don't see how a civil war really benefits Iranian
   aspirations; in many ways it actually hinders them, because it would
   create a hostile Sunni state on their doorstep.

References

   1. http://analysis.threatswatch.org/2006/03/sectarianism-violence-and-the/
   2. http://cityofbrass.blogspot.com/2006/02/is-partition-equal-to-victory.html
   3. http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1141331838.shtml