[Dean's World] Dave Price: Slow, Painful Victory

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Posted by Dave Price:
Slow, Painful Victory
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1150486822.shtml


   Ralph Peters notes that now [1]even Al Qaeda thinks we're winning in
   Iraq, which should (but won't) embarass all the people shortchanging
   the fairly miraculous achievements of our troops in Iraq. Some
   highlights from captured Al Qaeda "State of the Terrorists" documents:

     * The Iraqi military and security forces had become painfully
     effective, paralyzing terrorist efforts in parts of Iraq where
     they'd previously moved freely.
     * Losses due to U.S. and Iraqi strikes had badly sapped terrorist
     strength - and they were having grave difficulty gathering new
     recruits. Guess not everybody wants a Saturday-nighter with the
     virgins of paradise.
     * While elements in our own media continued to claim that the
     terrorists couldn't be defeated, the terrorists themselves felt
     that the Iraqi media's reporting on terrorist atrocities had badly
     undercut their base of support.
     * The terrorists were suffering from the loss of financial
     resources, as well as a shortage of weapons - old allies were
     bailing out on them, while their dwindling assets were being seized
     by Coalition and Iraqi-government forces.
     * In the terrorists' view, regional and world opinion had moved
     behind the Coalition and the elected Iraqi government.

   Interesting that Iraqi media apparently doesn't try to treat terrorist
   attacks neutrally. Maybe our media could learn something from them.
   But I think this is really the key:

     One key captured document states that "time is beginning to be of
     service to the American forces."

   In other words, our success is inevitable, unless we suddenly give up.
   Of course, leaving aside the effects of opinion polls, time was always
   on our military's side. Ratifying a constitution and holding
   democratic elections sapped insurgents' support. The ISF have been
   growing in numbers and effectiveness and are now a quarter-million
   strong, though some issues remain to be resolved with the police. More
   reconstruction projects are completing -- and not just coalition
   rebuilding, but projects undertaken by Iraq's elected government. Over
   time, all those things begin to have an effect.
   Based on statements from Maliki's people, ISF, and U.S. forces, 2007
   appears to be the year in which a large proportion of U.S. troops will
   return home, even if the insurgency continues at present levels. Some
   U.S. troops will no doubt remain, partly in an advisory/support
   capacity but also as an implicit guarantee of the sovereignty of
   Iraq's democratic rulers (no one is going to carry out a coup under
   the shadow of F-16s carrying laser-guided bombs). Though some will
   claim we're retreating under fire and point to continuing violence to
   claim this was no "Mission Accomplished," when the last area of
   operations is handed over to ISF control, that will in fact constitute
   U.S. victory.
   The pro-democracy Iraqis will probably have to continue the fight for
   some years, and antiwar pundits will point to that struggle saying
   "Look at the mess we left behind" as evidence the intervention was a
   mistake. But despite all the problems, in three short years Iraq has
   aready gone from one of the most oppressive countries in the Mideast
   to one of the most liberal, according to the [2]Index of Political
   Freedom. Iraq's next few years will be messy, violent, and corrupt --
   but free, and carrying real hope of a better future.

References

   1. http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/after_zarqawi__theyre_losing_opedcolumnists_ralph_peters.htm
   2. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4450582.stm