[Dean's World] Dave Price: Study and Speculation

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Dave Price:
Study and Speculation
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1165452216.shtml


   The much-ballyhooed and much-pilloried [1]Iraq Study Report is out,
   and as usual in cases like this much of what was leaked about it was
   misleading, untrue, or possibly removed once the leaked trial balloons
   were shot down. As Ron is wont to point out, much of what we do is
   flail around before all the facts are in, but maybe that's a useful
   function, since as the ongoing [2]Jamil Hussein saga proves that's
   what everyone is always doing to some extent.
   The main points were pretty well-known: present policy isn't working,
   more training, more negotiation with Syria and Iran (though the group
   hedges by admitting they may not be interested), etc. There's the
   expected wishful thinking about what diplomacy might accomplish.
   Hearteningly, they did not, as reported, advocate abandoning democracy
   in Iraq, [3]saying they "agree with the goal of U.S. policy in Iraq"
   which involves establishing "a broadly representative government."
   Overall they seem a bit too gloomy given the successes we've also had,
   but they get their news from the "burning Sunnis" press too.
   Two things struck me as especially interesting: the proposal to
   increase from a few thousand trainers to tens of thousands, which
   appears to be a very good idea based on what I hear about the relative
   performance of Iraqi units with American advisors versus those
   without, and this passage:

     Under the aegis of the New Diplomatic Offensive and the Support
     Group, the United States should engage directly with Iran and Syria
     in order to try to obtain their commitment to constructive policies
     toward Iraq and other regional issues. In engaging Syria and Iran,
     the United States should consider incentives, as well as
     disincentives, in seeking constructive results.

   Yes, "disincentives."
   A couple billion a year in funds to encourage liberal institutions and
   pro-democracy revolutionaries in Iran might be both eventually a
   bargain (what's a free Iran worth to us?) and presently a useful
   bargaining chip in the fight to keep them from interfering in a free
   and democratic Iraq (if they want to pressure us in Iraq, they should
   remember that we can play that game too). On the propaganda front,
   this regime is ripe, nay begging for mockery. Take, for instance, the
   incredible nature of some of [4]Ahmadinejadâs letters to Bush (a
   regime that executes gays and âunchasteâ 14-year-old girls bemoaning
   an alleged decline in civil liberties in America? That sort of
   ostentatious doublethink can't survive the ridicule of common sense).
   And on the military front, [5]Iran is not entirely peaceful and
   homogenous; there are pockets of unrest among ethnic Arabs and
   Azerbaijanis that might well be receptive if we decide those Iranian
   arms ending up in Iraq could best be counterbalanced with some flowing
   the other way.
   The report's authors predict that with accelerated training, things
   can be stabilized and withdrawals can begin in early 2008. I still
   think that's too oprimistic; it appears they'll need a few years to
   develop the 500,000 or so trained, equipped, reasonably professional
   national military/police that it will probably take to enforce peace
   and law and form the backbone of the new Iraqi nation.

References

   1. http://truthlaidbear.com/isg/isgreport.php
   2. http://news.bostonherald.com/columnists/view.bg?articleid=170263
   3. http://truthlaidbear.com/isg/isgreport.php?page=58
   4. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/09/AR2006050900878.html
   5. https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html