[Dean's World] Aziz P: democracy: our only hope

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Posted by Aziz P:
democracy: our only hope
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1156444927.shtml


   Charles Bird posts a litany of demands of the Administration, naming
   himself a mamber of the "Dissatisfieds", conservatives who supported
   George Bush but feel that the war is on track to failure rather than
   victory if there is not change. I feel his pain here, because though
   he and I disagreed on which candidate in 2004 was going to get the Job
   Done, we did agree on what a Done Job should look like.

   That said, I doubt his critique is going to gain much traction. Here's
   why:

     Donald Rumsfeld fired, to be replaced with someone who can put
     together a workable and executable plan for helping deliver a free,
     peaceful, democratic non-theocracy in Iraq.

   Who? Names, please. The only person I can think of is John Abizaid,
   but is that even remotely going to happen? Morelikely is a cosmetic
   change of leadership at Dod if anything, which will simply reinformce
   existing policy. The thing to change is not Rumsfeld, but the
   President and Vice President's attitude towards the threat. See below.

     Enough troops (both Iraq and coalition) to mount successful
     clear-and-hold counterinsurgency operations.

   how many? numbers, please. Where do the troops come from? how soon can
   they be mobilized? Can present recruiting sustain them? What level of
   incentives are we prepared to offer? Are we going to lower or raise
   physical and mental standards for new recruits?

     A more concerted effort to get Iraq trained to Level 2 status or
     better

   I think Charles is being unfair here. It seems clear that the best
   possible effort has already been made to do this. The problem is not
   lack of effort, its lack of resources.

     Better border security, keeping out Iranian infiltrators in the
     east and Sunni paramilitants in the west.

   utterly impossible, as pertains to the Iranian border. As far as Iran
   goes, the Administration is trying its best to paint Iran as an
   actionable threat. A diplomatic approach, with security guarantees,
   would be the better route with Iran. Most of Iran's interference in
   Iraq, and its nuclear ambition, is driven by its need to have a
   security posture with respect to us and Israel. The Administration is
   pursuing a direct confrontational approach, which is the opposite of
   what is required. Diplomacy with Iran would actually help stabilize
   Iraq, and the threat to Israel from Iran's nuclear ambitions is a
   deterrable one through conventional MAD (last I checked, blood enemies
   India and Pakistan have cooled down their animosity once they both
   joined the nuclear club, despite analogous hateful rhetoric. After
   all, autocrats are [1]not bred for suicidal impulses).

     A better information war.

   Better? in what way? how is our information war underperforming?
   Specifically? Keep in mind that Hizbollah and the insurgency in Iraq
   have dramatically different organization and goals.

   I believe that I have a single counter-proposal that would, if
   enacted, immediately improve the prospects for our victory in our long
   term project in Iraq. And that quite simply is, to be willing to treat
   each threat as a separable one rather than lump them all together. A
   [2]refinement of terminology is the first step - especially given
   [3]the damage that the present lexicon in use does for our prospects.

   As Kevin Drum states, we [4]don't have good options. I presently
   believe that [5]despite popular opinion, keeping a significant troop
   presence in Iraq will lead to the less-horrible outcome. [6]All
   outcomes are civil war at this point, though some forms of civil war
   are [7]more uncivil than others.

   I believe that the best we can do is to believe that democracy - even
   when it results [8]in Islamist gains - is genuinely transformative in
   the long run. Our troops are, for better or for worse now, the only
   thing that can buy us that time. Maybe.

References

   1. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/07/premises-about-human-nature.html
   2. http://americanfootprints.com/drupal/node/2790
   3. http://www.tnr.com/blog/theplank?pid=32929
   4. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_08/009385.php
   5. http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2006/08/what_the_iraqi_.html
   6. http://americanfootprints.com/drupal/node/2784
   7. http://www.redstate.com/stories/war/the_civil_war_in_iraq
   8. http://americanfootprints.com/drupal/node/2789