[Dean's World] Aziz P: Hizbollah won, but Israel didn't lose

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Posted by Aziz P:
Hizbollah won, but Israel didn't lose
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1156256603.shtml


   The concensus is that the Lebanon-Israeli conflict was a complete
   debacle. At the outset of the conflict, [1]I mourned that Hizbollah
   was winning, again. It's worth reading Greg Djerjian for the
   [2]definitive post-"cease fire" analysis in terms of what strategic
   advantage Israel has lost. Abu Aardvark has some observations about
   [3]what the Arab press is saying. And Charles Malik has a [4]morose
   look at the political scene in Lebanon.

   Still, despite all the ways in which Israel came out the worse for its
   efforts, I can point to a few positives.

   1. Some argue that the "myth of Israeli invincibility" with respect to
   conventional arms is now shaken. I argue otherwise: Israel showed that
   it could destroy Lebanon. Don't imagine for a moment that the message
   was not received in Damascus. As Razib pointed out, political rulers
   in Arab countries are [5]not bred for suicidal impulses. And of course
   the elephant in the room is Israel's nuclear weapons, which everyone
   knows exist and which were not used. If anything, the take-home
   message is: Israel's not going anywhere, least of all the sea. Even
   Hizbollah's vaunted victory over Israel was in a strictly defensive
   context.

   2. Even greater contempt for Arab regimes by the Arab people. Abu
   Aardvark [6]touches on this in more detail, but in a nutshell the Arab
   regimes basically own-goaled themselves from a PR perspective. The
   general view is that Arab rulers are totally irrelevant when it comes
   to the defense of the Arab polity. From Israel's perspective this is a
   tremendously important development.

   3. Iran is actually under increased scrutiny. The rise of Hizbollah
   and Nasrallah to folk hero status means that the Arab regimes see Iran
   as an even bigger threat to what they care about - not Islam, but
   rather their hold on power (see Point 2 above). Iranian money is
   flooding Lebanon right now which guarantees that they will have
   tremendous influence over Lebanon's future (another wasted opportunity
   by the US, but don't get me started). But more broadly speaking, for
   the region as a whole, Iran is now firmly on the threat radar. And the
   overblown promises of doomsday on Aug 22nd haven't exactly come to
   pass either.

   Overall, the point is that the Israel-Lebanon conflict served to throw
   pressure on the old fault lines of division in teh region - and in
   some cases, those fault lines are useful in fracturing the threat
   facing Israel. When everyone who hates Israel hates each other just as
   much, then part of that hate energy is diffused.

   ([7]xposted to Nation-Building)

References

   1. http://cityofbrass.blogspot.com/2006/07/tragedy-of-moderation.html
   2. http://www.belgraviadispatch.com/2006/08/the_isrealilebanese_denouement.html
   3. http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2006/08/who_won.html
   4. http://lebop.blogspot.com/2006/08/hezbollah-saniora-jumblatt-determined.html
   5. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/07/premises-about-human-nature.html
   6. http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2006/08/who_won.html
   7. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/08/hizbollah-won-but-israel-didnt-lose.html