[Dean's World] Aziz P: a chat about Israel and peace

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Aziz P:
a chat about Israel and peace
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1154964690.shtml


   dean.esmay: It's often struck me as odd that orthodox jews and
   traditionalist muslims are so at each others's throats in the Middle
   East. The practices and traditions are much closer than those of
   Christians and Jews. Not that Christians recognize this (most are too
   blind) but most Jews do.

   Aziz: actually there is a lot of recognition of theological
   similarities. It's right in the Qur'an too. most conflict comes from,
   in my opinion, less spiritual sources. The people wrap religion around
   them. I mean, the entire issue in the middle east is purely about
   land. nothing else.

   dean.esmay: Yeah I've long thought so. Land and resources.

   Aziz: the latter is really just the former.

   Aziz: I liked [1]your comment in the "complexify" thread

   dean.esmay: I always figure I must piss you off when I do that. ;-)

   Aziz: about how another way to identify someone worth ignoring on the
   conflict is if they want only one side to compromise

   Aziz: nah - :) you're my elder, i'm supposed to learn a bit from you
   from time to time :)

   Aziz: though i am getting rather silver haired in my young adulthood

   Aziz: in fact [2]the Scowcroft plan has two massive compromises in it,
   one for each side

   dean.esmay: I'm lucky, my family neither balds nor greys early.

   dean.esmay: Snowcroft's plan is perfectly sensible so long as there
   are reasonably reliable players in charge on both sides.

   Aziz: well, think of it this way - in relation to [3]another comment
   you made - its true that the palestinians have only really had true
   representative goivernment since Arafat died, and that they need to
   mature in that role. So what they really need is time. The Wall gives
   them and Israel that time

   Aziz: the problem right now is that Olmert is not Sharon

   dean.esmay: I find it odd some of the people who say that given how
   three years ago so many were down on Sharon. But at least Sharon was
   decisive, and calm in the face of adversity.

   Aziz: well, thats true, but he also made some massive mistakes when he
   took power, just like arafat did. here let me share with you two links
   I wrote from a few years ago

   Myth 1: [4]Barak was generous at Camp David

   Myth 2: [5]Arafat began the Intifada after Sharon's visit to the
   Temple Mount

   (ed: see [6]related discussion at The Glitttering Eye)

   Aziz: the truth is that the Taba agreement was really the peace that
   everyone wanted and even Arafat was onboard. Theres a very simple
   reason why Arafat rejected Camp David - rightly so, in 2000

   dean.esmay: unfortunately some of your links are expired. One day
   someone's gonna invent a fix for that.

   Aziz: i know it was a few years ago. They aready have - Furl not that
   i use it :) the flash demonstration works though

   dean.esmay: Furl?

   Aziz: http://www.furl.net/ I really should use it.

   dean.esmay: That would require taking time to learn it. The older I
   get the less patience I have for such things.

   Aziz: now, I don't think thats true :) you dont have less patience,
   there are just more things

   dean.esmay: I just never, ever believed Arafat was a genuine partner
   in peace. Maybe you're right that he wasn't presented with anything
   genuinely workable but.... guys like that, they don't rule with any
   legitimacy. I can't respect them.

   Aziz: respect though is not the issue

   dean.esmay: The new Palestinian leader, whatever his faults, is a step
   forward.

   dean.esmay: Well, "respect" in the sense of "believing he'll keep his
   word." I never believed that.

   Aziz: arafat, for all his faults, was at least doing the right thing
   for his people at camp david

   Aziz: dean, Taba was a done deal. Arafat stood to gain immensely from
   it himself. had Sharon committed to Taba, it would have worked. Taba
   was hardly toothless. The sole reason that Sharon publicly undermined
   Taba's legitimacy was because he was playing to the extreme right - to
   build support for his candidacy. it worked. and the press at the time
   - in Israel! - was livid

   Aziz: im not spinning here because im pro palestine and want israel
   pushed into the sea or because im a muslim sympathizer who hates jews

   Aziz: I'm giving you my analysis of the facts on the ground - the
   events at the time. Taba - which Scowcroft is essentially also pushing
   now - IS the solution.

   dean.esmay: I believe you're not spinning.

   Aziz: but what arafat was oferred in 2000 by barak was just not
   acceptable.

   dean.esmay: I totally get this.

   dean.esmay: I'm just telling it like it is; having followed Arafat's
   career going back to the 1970s, I just NEVER believed he'd keep to any
   agreement. That said, maybe you're right and there were enough
   incentives in it for him. I mean, people forget the war he fomented
   with Jordan. And with Lebanon. And so on.

   Aziz: Dean - Arafat himself is who pushed the palestinians to give up
   right of return. think about that.

   dean.esmay: He was too busy attacking the Hashemites for a while there
   to bother with the Jews.

   Aziz: just like it was sharon who withdrew from gaza. yes i am no fan
   of arafat either and i may have actually applauded his death - i hope
   not, but its possible i havent looked at my archives but i try to be
   more restrained in general

   dean.esmay: Well, Clinton's legacy may be that, though he failed, he
   brought both peoples closer to the day when the two-state solution
   could happen. Which I'm still much more optimistic about than most
   people by the way. In another ten years, if things go right, most of
   this argument will probably be moot.

   Aziz: Taba is the solution, and Clinton's hands on approach was
   important - but in the end, he pushed arafat to accept Barak's 2000
   plan and then publicly castigated Arafat for refusing.

   dean.esmay: I think increases in technology, and the free flow of
   information it engenders, is going to make certain reforms inevitable.

   Aziz: reforms are inevitable - but peace wasnt neccessarily tied to
   them. nor do we need to even wait ten years for it. Taba could be
   implemented tomorrow, if the animosity can be reduced - which it can.

   dean.esmay: Well it's certainly been enlightening to see what Israeli
   Arabs have been saying. And how quiet the Palestinians have mostly
   been with this latest stuff. I mean aside from the inevitable
   cheerleading.

   Aziz: what bothers me is the one-sidedness of most people towrads the
   conflict. Taba is a good benchmark on this. and i think that the
   palestinians get an unfair rap.

   dean.esmay: Well, while I tend to side more with Israel and be harder
   on the Palestinians, this is mostly based on... well, you know what
   it's based on. Democracy, liberalism, and all that, and my view of
   Arafat as more a thug than a genuinely legit leader.

   Aziz: well, arafat was a thug. thats reason for sympathy to the Pals,
   though.

   dean.esmay: But Palestine is on the right path toward that legitimacy.

   Aziz: yes. even with electing Hamas.

   dean.esmay: Yep. Righties got all over my case about that, but it is a
   step in the right direction.

   Aziz: for the last few years i've just shyed away from the issue
   really

   dean.esmay: There's not much more to be said until the war winds down.
   Which it will soon I think.

   Aziz: ah i just noticed [7]your comment at NB

   Aziz: i think youre using a different definition of what it means to
   be World War III than Razib , or most conservative righties for that
   matter

   Aziz: do you really think that terrorists pose an existential threat
   to the United States?

   dean.esmay: Inasmuch as 2 or 3 more events on roughly similar scale to
   9/11 would probably turn us into a very, very different country, yes.

   Aziz: thats an internal response to external stimulus though

   dean.esmay: Existential as in wiping us out or turning us into the
   "Dhimmicratic States of America," then f*&k no, those people are
   idiots.

   Aziz: you basically agree with Razib, Dean. you're not talking about
   world war III. you're talking about a fascist over-response that comes
   from abandoning our own Enlightenment values

   Aziz: in other words, responding to terrorists by becomng them, not
   defeating them

   dean.esmay: Essentially correct, yes. Although I don't see us becoming
   them just yet. I just don't.

   Aziz: well, i dont either

   dean.esmay: I also respect the impulse which says that what we
   sometimes see as reasonable they see as signs of weakness and
   vulnerability.

   Aziz: but razibs point is different

   dean.esmay: "Go ahead keep hitting me, I won't hit back." Good way to
   get your ass beat down really hard. I mean, as I've said many times:
   if Gandhi had been facing Stalin or Mao or Hitler instead of the
   basically (at core) decent British, we wouldn't know who he was
   because he would have got a bullet to the brain and thrown in a mass
   grave.

   Aziz: very true. but no one - NO ONE - is saying dont fight back

   Aziz: its all about HOW we fight back. the mistake the right makes is
   to equate differenc in HOW with difference in WHETHER. thats solely
   for political gain, to misrepresent like that. we need a debate on
   HOW. we still dont really have one. i've been trying to push that at
   DW.

   dean.esmay: This is true. The "how" does matter quite a bit.

   Aziz: ive said in the past, [8]the means influence the ends.

   dean.esmay: Well, when talking to hawks, it does well to bear in mind
   that they are action-oriented and seek parsimony, and they expect to
   get right to the point. The mistake that others make is to interpret
   this as simple-mindedness.

   Aziz: well, if they expect to get right to the point - without
   sufficient attention to the importance of "how" - that IS
   simple-mindedness, Dean.

   Aziz: its not going to be straightforward to solve these conflicts
   just because they are determined. it takes as much patience as it does
   fortitude. and the problem i am railing against is really this: the
   way in which the struggles are distilled down into one dimension.

   Aziz: "Israelis are zionist oppressors!" "Palestinians are terrorist
   scum!" "every person is southern lebanon is a Hizbollah sympathzer,
   not a civilian!"

   Aziz: these atttitudes are what drive policy! what drive analysis!

   dean.esmay: Yes, those are simpleminded points of view.

   Aziz: those are mainstream attitudes, dean. and razib is right [9]to
   castigate it. i mean, the comment thread on my [10]open source peace
   .. what did you think of that?

   dean.esmay: Had to go change my son's diaper.

   Aziz: hehe been there :)

   dean.esmay: I thought the way it was framed tended to turn it in
   certain directions. There are simple-minded people on all sides of
   these questions. And there's more than two sides. Snowcroft's suggests
   are entirely rational but how to get there is a more important
   question. Negotiating with Hezbollah? I don't see that as the starting
   point. So negotiate with who?

   dean.esmay: For me what it boils down to is that the Israelis no
   longer care what their neighbors think of them because they think it
   just doesn't matter. And they're laying an ass-whuppin in Lebanon in
   the hopes that this further leads to the idea that "Do Not F^%k With
   Us" is the Israeli national motto.

   dean.esmay: I don't think that viewpoint is a lack of sophistication.
   I think in terms of Game Theory they've decided this is the best
   option. Some of their supporters are simple-minded about it. Some are
   more astute.

   Aziz: i disagree that this is israels' strategy and theres plenty of
   prior negoitation with hezbollah. esp for prisoner swaps.

   dean.esmay: I don't think they're saying it. I'm not even sure Olmert
   is cognizant of it. But I think that's basically where they're going.

   Aziz: i disagree. Israel's strategy is to try and [11]depopulate
   southern lebanon, push hizb back to north of the litani, and then get
   the international community to police the zone.

   dean.esmay: It amounts to the same thing, doesn't it?

   Aziz: no. "Dont f&^k with us" is just an attitude, a useful one but
   not a real guarantor

   dean.esmay: Well, I guess we just disagree, as I see that as the
   upshot. People can talk all they want to about how angry they are, but
   when push comes to shove how many are rushing down to Lebanon to join
   the fight?

   Aziz: israel already kind of has the DFWU rep actually.if anything the
   present war has undermined it, not strengthened it.

   Aziz: the depopulation strategy is more tangible. its not an opnion of
   mine. its the admitted strategy of the israelis themselves, if you
   look at what [12]the backchannel is saying

   Aziz: and it makes sense, too. leave aside moral/just issues.
   depopulating south leb is [13]a good strategy.

   dean.esmay: Yeah. They're being clear enough about it. It's not a nice
   choice.

   Aziz: its a bad choice for their long term security though. displacing
   shia to north of the litani essentially destoys [14]the natural
   advantage that israel would have had with a democracy next door

   dean.esmay: Probably. That is the great tragedy here. But a weak
   democracy that can't control militant elements within is not much of a
   democracy at all.

   Aziz: but lenbanon would not have been a weak democracy forever. and
   there were VERY strong trends within leb to marhinalize hizb. there is
   such tragic irony in that

   dean.esmay: So what was the right thing to do at the begininng here?
   Negotiate directly with Hezb?

   Aziz: i mean - look at what totten has been reporting from the ground.
   hizb was being marginalized. leb identity and national pride was
   rising

   dean.esmay: Well, perhaps that's why Hezb made this choice. They felt
   that coming.

   Aziz: you know what sharon did in the past when hizb tried to "bomber
   veto" ? he [15]negotiated.

   dean.esmay: link no work

   Aziz: frak. k read [16]Djerjian's summary here.

   dean.esmay: But yes, there has been negotiations with them in the
   past.

   Aziz: my point is that hizb was just following an old pattern. olmert
   reacted because he had to prove he was sharon. HA played the advantage
   they were given and rode the train.

   Aziz: this wasnt a master plan, Dean. it was simply a bad intersection
   of luck and leadership. note that HA didnt fire any rockets at Israel
   until after the bombing campaign began. they realized what an
   opportunity they had been handed - and they ran with the ball.

   Aziz: and if israel succeeds in depopulating leb south of the litani,
   Hezbollah really have won a massive turnaround in their fortunes.

   Aziz: Hizb doesn't want to destroy isrtael, dean. they just want to
   control lebanon. the cedar revolution was their real enemy.

   dean.esmay: The die for good or ill has been cast.

   Aziz: well, thats true. which is why we need to start talking about
   Taba again

   dean.esmay: I'm tempted to contact the Israeli embassy to ask for an
   interview but at this point I don't know what I'd ask them, as it all
   seems pretty obvious to me--a blind spot that I sometimes don't know
   what to do about.

   Aziz: ask them if in principle Israel would still be willing to commit
   to a two state solution along the lines of Taba and Scowcoft

   dean.esmay: But they take my phone calls and answer my emails. Hmm.
   Maybe you want to contact them on my behalf? I can forward you their
   info and send them a letter of introduction.

   Aziz: well, the purpose would be to blog their response right? you
   actually have more cred than I do on this. you're considered to be
   more impartial.

   Aziz: I think i spent a lot of my cred with my last few posts.

   dean.esmay: Surely.

   Aziz: people already know i support Taba and Scowcroft, after all.

   dean.esmay: Er... The "surely" is in response to blogging the
   response.

   Aziz: hehe

   dean.esmay: Not the rest.

   Aziz: i know :) well, cred is for spending. otherwise whats the point
   on acquiring it? :)

   dean.esmay: That's correct, and you have cred with me. Moreover, I
   keep thinking about writing them but I just don't know what to ask
   them.

   Aziz: ask them what i propose.

   dean.esmay: It's up to you. Door's open to you.

   Aziz: ask whether they woudl still be willing to support the 2 state
   solution based on the Scowcroft outline.

   dean.esmay: What's that got to do with Lebanon? Did I miss something?

   Aziz: yes - lebanon is a separate issue, but the root cause is the
   west bank

   Aziz: lebanon is really all about lebanon. hizbollah's aims are tied
   to lebanon, not israel. israel faces no real existential threat.
   [17]look at the numbers.

   Aziz: ask israel's embassy about the real existential issue, not the
   distraction up north

   dean.esmay: No, Hezb cannot destroy them, although it's interesting to
   contemplate just how long they can keep this shit up and how much
   damage they can do.

   Aziz: not very long, not much overall.

   dean.esmay: I just don't have the energy to be honest. Too much on my
   mind. Not that I don't care. I'm just too frazzled to concentrate on
   this.

   Aziz: i know EXACTLY what you mean.

References

   1. http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1154878966.shtml#78098
   2. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/08/peace-in-middle-east.html
   3. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/08/peace-in-middle-east.html#115494162653174559
   4. http://cityofbrass.blogspot.com/2002_10_05_cityofbrass_archive.html#85528577
   5. http://cityofbrass.blogspot.com/2002/10/myths-about-israeili-palestinian.html
   6. http://theglitteringeye.com/?p=2229#comment-18385
   7. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/08/wrong-reason.html#115494123713986119
   8. http://cityofbrass.blogspot.com/2004/02/means-influence-ends.html
   9. http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/08/wrong-reason.html
  10. http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1154725282.shtml
  11. http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/008888.php
  12. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/07/28/wmid28.xml
  13. http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/008888.php
  14. http://headheeb.blogmosis.com/archives/032580.html
  15. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/06/weekinreview/06bronner.html?ref=middleeast&pagewanted=print
  16. http://www.belgraviadispatch.com/2006/08/post_39.html
  17. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525814279&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull