[Dean's World] Ron Coleman: The fog of war

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Posted by Ron Coleman:
The fog of war
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1154465613.shtml


   We don't know who's winning, or who's going to win. The meme of three
   or four days ago -- that Israel was "hopelessly bogged down" and had
   suffered irreparable "political damage" by defending itself -- is
   grinding, slowly, to a halt, though my friend Aziz here still seems
   sincerely convinced of it.

   I've blogged, in the chain below, why I think this chorus may be
   wrong.

   I'd like to think that the military, political and intelligence
   leadership is roughly as smart as people who write newspaper columns
   and blogs. But they don't have to be. They can also be twice as smart
   -- and fail miserably.

   Having said that, here are my links:

   The [1]Jerusalem Post says:

     A special Military Intelligence unit, consisting of six
     professional profilers, has been established to profile Hizbullah
     leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. According to the unit, Nasrallah is
     scared of a massive ground incursion, which he understands could
     destroy his infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

     The bottom line is that in contrast to public perception that
     Hizbullah was winning the war, the defense establishment believes
     that the group has been dealt a fatal blow and while it still had
     the ability to shoot Katyushas at Israel, firing a record 150
     Sunday, the fact that on Monday the group only fired two rockets
     demonstrated Nasrallah's interest in reaching a cease-fire with
     Israel.

   Here's [2]Strategy Page:

     While Hizbollah is good at getting Lebanese civilians killed, they
     are not very effective at hurting Israelis. Engineer and
     intelligence troops have identified less than a hundred rockets
     landing in Israel each day so far. This is done by collecting and
     identifying fragments. But as time goes by, more rocket hits are
     discovered in unpopulated areas of northern Israel. Apparently more
     than a hundred rockets are landing in northern Israel each day, but
     on many days, only a few dozen land anywhere near residential
     areas. Many of the rocket salvos (two dozen or more 122mm rockets
     are being fired at a time) are not aimed very well at all, and
     don't come down anywhere near to an Israeli settlement. This is why
     there has been less than one Israeli casualty per rocket fired.
     This casualty rate has been coming down. One recent barrage of 25
     122mm rockets landed in an Israeli town and caused no casualties at
     all (but damaged several buildings).

     The Israelis keep civilian casualties down by having better bomb
     shelters, using them more effectively and evacuating many of the
     more exposed towns in northern Israel. Since Israel is a democracy,
     the government has to do all it can to minimize its civilian
     casualties. Hizbollah is not a democracy, but a religious
     dictatorship (trying to bring that form of government to Lebanon,
     and then the world.) Hizbollah considers itself on a mission from
     God, and within its rights to kill anyone, and do anything, to
     complete its mission. Thus the policy of getting the maximum number
     of Lebanese civilians killed. European and Moslem media have taken
     the bait, and are calling Israeli responses, to Hizbollah attacks,
     "war crimes."

     Israeli ground operations appear to be using paratroopers and other
     elite infantry to hunt down and kill Hizbollah rocket launching
     teams. Hizbollah has not got a lot of trained people. Kill them,
     and they are hard to replace. There are only so many rocket
     launcher teams. Kill them, and no one will be available to take the
     rockets out of their hiding places and launch them. Right now, this
     battle is being won by the Israelis, because Hizbollah has not been
     able to launch many longer (over 20 kilometers) rockets at more
     densely populated areas deeper in Israel. Most of the rockets are
     short range ones. The Israeli attack on the transportation system
     in southern Lebanon has made it difficult to move large objects,
     like big rockets, into position for launch. . . .

     Israel is not giving detailed briefings on its tactics and exactly
     what its forces have accomplished so far. That's because this war
     is largely a psychological one. It's also an Information War, where
     the manipulation of the media is an important aspect of the fight.
     In this respect, Hizbollah has an edge, because most of the Moslem
     and European media will automatically side with them against
     Israel. That said, the Israeli strategy appears to be the
     destruction of people and material that Hizbollah will have the
     most difficulty replacing, and weakening Hizbollah enough so that
     the majority of Lebanese, and the Lebanese government, can regain
     control of southern Lebanon (and Hizbollah controlled Beirut
     neighborhoods), that Hizbollah has controlled for decades. If
     Lebanon can put itself back together, Hizbollah will be much less
     of a threat. Because this conflict is also seen as another battle
     in the thousand year old war between Sunni and Shia, most Arabs,
     while cheering for Hizbollah, because they are armed Arabs who did
     not go down before the Israeli in the first round, will not be
     terribly upset if Hizbollah ultimately loses and disappears.

   Another article from [3]Strategy Page:

     What makes war unpredictable is the fact that, while genius may
     have its limits, stupidity doesn't. Hizbollah is basically stupid.
     They are part of a movement dedicated to taking over the world.
     Israel just wants to survive. Hizbollah is part of an Arab military
     tradition that takes pride in a long string of defeats because that
     means eventually the enemy will get tired of beating on us and go
     away. This is how they turned the 2000 Israeli withdrawal from
     southern Lebanon (actually a peace offering) into a great military
     victory for Hizbollah. Another example of stupidity without limits.

     When the dust has settled on this war in Lebanon, the remnants of
     Hizbollah will be busy rearranging the facts in order to produce
     another victory. But Hizbollah will no longer be the force it once
     was, and Lebanese soldiers and police will once more be patrolling
     southern Lebanon, rolling past the wreckage of Hizbollah bunkers
     and military facilities. The hundreds of buildings and bridges
     destroyed by Israeli bombs will be a reminder to the Lebanese of
     what happens when you allow part of your country to he hijacked by
     a bunch of religious maniacs. The majority of Lebanese were never
     happy about Hizbollah, but lacked the courage to do anything about
     it. Israel's not going away, but Hizbollah is. It's members can
     easily go back to being Lebanese, or get killed by an Israeli smart
     bomb, or sniper. Israelis have no such options, and have no choice
     but to fight and win. That makes a big difference on the
     battlefield. You can look it up.

   Who the hell knows? I don't. I would suggest that assertions like
   "game over" only add to the fog, however.

References

   1. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153292045753&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
   2. http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20060731.aspx
   3. http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20060728.aspx