[Dean's World] Dave Price: Why Not Bomb Iran?

[notify at powerblogs.com]

Posted by Dave Price:
Why Not Bomb Iran?
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1154444959.shtml


   Sooner or later, the obviousness of the truth will become apparent to
   even the least perspicacious observers: the campaign against Hizbollah
   can only have a short-term impact on their military effectiveness, as
   Iran will simply re-arm them as soon as hostilities end, and
   politically bombing Lebanon has been a disastrous boost Hizbollah's
   popularity there. Itâs also become apparent no disarmament or buffer
   zone is going to be seriously enforced by international forces:
   Hizbollah will either bomb them (as they did our Marines) or suborn
   them (as theyâve done to the UN forces).
   So what if we or Israel targeted a few structures housing the elite in
   Iran, to deliver the message they can be held personally responsible
   for their actions by the high-explosive packed tip of a cruise
   missile? Letâs look at the potential outcomes:
   The Gaddafi Outcome: Iranâs leaders decide they arenât quite ready to
   meet Allah yet, and decide to behave. Their rhetoric doesnât change,
   but their actions do.
   The War Outcome: In a suicidal fit of rage, Iranâs mad mullahs declare
   war on us. Thereâs not really much they can do; worst case, they stir
   up trouble in Iraq and fire missiles into Israel (which is pretty much
   what theyâre doing today anyway), but they canât muster a serious
   anti-air defense and the ISF are taking the lead in their country. The
   Iranian government may be deadly to insufficiently chaste 14-year-old
   girls, but a single carrier group can lay waste to their armed forces.
   If they get really obnoxious, we cut off their oil.
   The So What Outcome: Iran continues doing and saying more or less
   exactly what it did before, but at least they have to hide in bunkers
   while theyâre doing it.
   Obviously there would be implications to any of the above; oil might
   reach $100/barrel and perhaps a lot more if their oilfields have to be
   targeted. But can we afford to be held hostage to the convenience of
   cheap crude?
   And remember, the nuclear clock is tickingâ¦..