[Dean's World] Dean: Iraq Coalition of the Willing Combat Deaths: Early 2006 Update

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Posted by Dean:
Iraq Coalition of the Willing Combat Deaths: Early 2006 Update
http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1144074353.shtml


   Last June I ran a lengthy analysis of the combat deaths suffered by
   U.S. and other Coalition of the Willing members in Iraq. It seemed
   time to do an update.

   Here is what the average daily combat deaths have looked like for the
   Coalition of the Willing since the liberation operation began in 2003:

   [1]average daily deaths by month 

   (Click image to enlarge.)

   As I noted last year, we've seen that the brutal fascist "insurgency"
   in Iraq tends to grow increasingly desperate during periods where Iraq
   is about to make a major move toward a better future. We saw major
   upward ratchetings in violence after Uday & Qusay were killed,
   seemingly in defiance, but then a sag after Saddam was captured. Then
   violence ratcheded upward in a desperate attempt to stop us from
   handing over sovereignty to a native Iraqi interim government, then
   another sag when that failed and the Coalition Provisional Authority
   stepped down and put native Iraqis in charge of their own affairs.
   Then, there was another severe upswing in violence before the first
   national elections, in an attempt to stop them. They failed. Then
   another ratched upwards to stop the elections to ratify the
   Constitution. They failed again.

   The only change from the pattern I see, aside from the fact that the
   "insurgency" keeps getting less and less violent, is that the violence
   started up again sharply after the Constitution was ratified... but
   then a few weeks before the final elections, it began petering out.
   Apparently, because many in the "insurgency" began to sense that if
   they didn't take part in the political process, they were truly
   doomed.

   If we look at it by the five major periods of the operation -- as
   defined by the [2]Iraq Coalition Casualty Count front page -- we get
   the following even more illuminating result:

   [3]average daily deaths by period 

   (Click image to elarge.)

   Some have tried to claim this second chart is meaningless. No, it
   isn't. The trend on both charts is downward, but this second one looks
   at the five major defining phases so far of the war: 1) the initial
   invasion, 2) the period where we ran their temporary government for
   them, 3) the period where they were governed by hand-selected native
   Iraqi groups, 4) the period from the initial election of a temporary
   government until the ratification of their own Constitution and the
   election more permanent government, and 5) the current period, wherein
   the Iraqis are coming to grips with their new Constitution.

   When will this fifth period end? Hard to say. If we're lucky, it will
   be the longest period, lasting until they hold their next elections in
   about four years. If something horribly disruptive occurs before then,
   then, we may have to re-evaluate.

   One thing that gets brought up a lot is that more and more of Iraq is
   now being controlled by native Iraqi police and military forces.
   Astoudingly, some try to use this as evideince that things are going
   badly. They'll try to tell you that the native Iraqi security forces
   are getting slaughtered. We should be more than a little skeptical of
   this desperate desire to make a sow's ear out of a silk purse. The
   fact that native Iraqis are taking over more and more of their own
   security is fabulously good news.

   I can't seem to find firm data on how many Iraqi cops and soldiers
   have been killed while fighting against the fascist "insurgency." But,
   drawing from [4]this source, we can plot the following:

   [5]iraqi security total deaths by month 

   (Click image to enlarge.)

   Clearly, the period in which they took the most damage was early on,
   when the fascists tried to kill any Iraqi brave and patriotic enough
   to become a cop or soldier.

   And clearly, it didn't work. Despite the fact that more of them go on
   duty every month, and more and more of the country is under their
   control, their casualties are not through the roof. Indeed, we should
   expect to see their numbers going up and up and up every month,as they
   take over more and more and more of the country.

   But apparently, based on the best data available to me, they're not.
   Indeed, both this chart and the first two chart indicate that
   organized resistance is falling apart and more and more of what's left
   of it is terrified to attack either coalition forces or native Iraqi
   forces.

   Everything's still not a bed ofroses of course. Parts of the country
   are still in chaos. Baghdad in particular seems to be undergoing a
   street-gang level convulsion, with Sunni-on-Shia and Shia-on-Sunni
   violence enacting brutal reprisals on each other. It's anyone's guess
   how long that's going to take to settle out. On the other hand, those
   who are trying to sell that as a "civil war" should be looked at the
   same way you look at someone on a street corner who tries to sell you
   a $25 Rolex.

   What's sad about all this is that most Americans still have managed to
   convince themselves that "casualties are mounting" and that Iraq is
   "descending into chaos." But then, that's been the running
   doom'n'gloom narrative from the press all along, hasn't it?

   (By the way, if you would like the complete Excel spreadsheet, with
   the complete and total data set the above all came from, simply drop
   me a line and I'll send it to you, no problem. If someone has better
   or more comprehensive data, or thinks they have a better analysis,
   they should also let me know.)

References

   1. file://localhost/files/deanesmay-Average_daily_deaths_by_month.gif
   2. http://www.icasualties.org/oif/
   3. file://localhost/files/deanesmay-Average_daily_deaths_by_period.GIF
   4. http://www.icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx
   5. file://localhost/files/deanesmay-Iraqi_cops_&_soldiers.GIF