[chessmind] Dennis Monokroussos: Anand-Kramnik: Prediction Time!

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Posted by Dennis Monokroussos:
Anand-Kramnik: Prediction Time!
http://chessmind.powerblogs.com/posts/1223965040.shtml


   I've solicited readers' guesses (and will accept them up until the
   first game starts (9 a.m. ET this (Tuesday) morning; 3 p.m. local time
   in Bonn, Germany); now it's my turn.
   Let's consider five possibilities:
   1a. Anand wins by 3 or more games.
   1b. Kramnik wins by 3 or more games.
   2a. Anand wins by 1 or 2 games.
   2b. Kramnik wins by 1 or 2 games.
   3. The match ends in a 6-6 tie and goes to tiebreak games.
   Let's also consider the players' strengths and weaknesses.
   A. Peak strength
   B. Average strength
   C. 2007 results in general
   D. Most recent results
   E. Head-to-head, classical chess
   F. Head-to-head, rapid chess
   G. Physical condition
   H. Psychological strength
   On (A), I think Kramnik comes out slightly ahead. His peak in 2000 and
   2001 seems unmatched by Anand, and I don't think there was ever a time
   when Anand could have to Kasparov what Kramnik did. On the other hand,
   that was a long time ago, and one might argue with some propriety that
   Kramnik played especially well against Kasparov while Anand did
   especially poorly. Still, I'm inclined to go with Kramnik on this one.
   On (B), [1]TrueChess.com seems to give the edge to Kramnik over most
   extended time periods; on the other hand, [2]ChessMetrics gives the
   edge to Anand, and over a period that includes Kramnik's best years.
   So here too it's awfully close, but given Kramnik's up and down
   results since 2004 I'll give the nod to Anand.
   (C) is clearly in Anand's favor. They started the year with identical
   ratings, and Kramnik has fallen further. Additionally, Anand has
   enjoyed success in rapid events not matched by Kramnik.
   (D) on the other hand slightly favors Kramnik. He had a fair +1 score
   in his most recent event, the Tal Memorial, but that's a lot better
   than Anand's lousy and winless -2 score at the Grand Slam Final. Plus
   for Kramnik.
   (E) favors Kramnik. In 51 classical chess games, [3]Kramnik leads 6-4
   with 41 draws.
   (F) on the other hand, favors Anand decisively. In 46 rapid games, 34
   games have been drawn, but [4]Anand leads by a lopsided 10 wins to 2.
   (G) is tough to assess. Kramnik is six years younger, but neither is
   really young and Kramnik has had serious health problems. Both have
   taken special care for their physical fitness leading up to the match,
   but neither seems exactly ascetic. Kramnik [5]claimed in a recent
   interview that he was feeling very good, even better than he did when
   facing Kasparov in 2000. If that's true, then I'd give a serious edge
   to Kramnik. If not, then it's a pick 'em.
   (H) is probably Kramnik's biggest asset. Kramnik has demonstrated his
   psychological strength against adversity on the board and off, while
   Anand's track record in this realm has been spotty at best. (I
   wondered if he might have overcome this, but his performance in the
   Grand Slam Final and the expression on his face when recalling past
   failures in his new ChessBase disks suggested otherwise. Watching him
   talk about bad events like [6]Dortmund 2001 (-4 in 10 games) was to
   see the personification of a black cloud. Chances are there will come
   a moment in this match when Anand will have to bounce back, and
   hopefully the youngsters around him will help in that respect.
   OK, with all this in mind it's time to evaluate the possibilities.
   (1a) seems to me highly unlikely. I doubt either player will dominate
   the other, and given Kramnik's mental toughness I don't think such a
   collapse is possible. (1b) seems very slightly more likely, given the
   discussion in (H), but it still seems highly improbable.
   (2a) is reasonably likely, especially if the erratic Kramnik of 2004-5
   and this year's Dortmund tournament shows up. Anand is a good
   front-runner, and if he gets out to a lead and is in good form, his
   ability to dry up a game out of the opening will make him extremely
   hard to beat. Likewise, (2b) is also very likely, and if Kramnik is in
   something near his best form it's the likeliest scenario - especially
   because Anand hasn't been very good at catching up.
   As for (3), that's most likely MATCH OVER for Kramnik. Kramnik will
   have a chance thanks to his better nerves, but Anand is so dominant at
   faster time controls that Anand has de facto draw odds for the match.
   I think the first player to be up after an even number of games will
   probably win the match, and I'm going to guess that the winner is...

   ([7]show)

   Kramnik, 6.5-5.5.
   ([8]hide)

References

   1. http://www.truechess.com/web/champs.html
   2. http://db.chessmetrics.com/CM2/PeakList.asp?Params=199510SSSSS5S000000000000111000000000000010100
   3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_games_between_Anand_and_Kramnik
   4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_games_between_Anand_and_Kramnik
   5. http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=4950
   6. http://www.teleschach.de/dortmund-2001/
   7. file://localhost/var/www/powerblogs/chessmind/posts/1223965040.html
   8. file://localhost/var/www/powerblogs/chessmind/posts/1223965040.html