[chessmind] Dennis Monokroussos: As Predicted, Danailov Strikes Again

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Posted by Dennis Monokroussos:
As Predicted, Danailov Strikes Again
http://chessmind.powerblogs.com/posts/1159968982.shtml


   Here's a delightful [1]press release from Silvio Danailov mentioning -
   for purely mathematical interest, I'm sure - a set of "coincidence
   statistics":

     Coincidence Statistics of the moves of GM Kramnik
     with recommendations of the chess program Fritz 9
     Elista, October 4, 2006
     After very detailed analyze [sic] of all games of the match we
     would like to present to your attention coincidence statistics of
     the moves of GM Kramnik with recommendations of chess program Fritz
     9.
     First game:
     From 75 moves: After the 12th move of Topalov Ba6, a novelty, from
     65 remaining moves â 41 moves match with the first line of Fritz 9.
     (63% of matches)
     Second game:
     From 63 moves: After 17th move, where the theory ends, from
     remaining 46 moves â 40 moves match with the first line of Fritz 9.
     (87% of matches)
     Third game
     From 38 moves: after 10th move, when the theory ends, from 46
     remaining moves â 40 match with the first line of Fritz 9. (86% of
     matches)
     Forth [sic] game:
     From 54 moves: After 14th move, when the theory ends, from 40
     remaining moves â 30 match with the first line of Fritz 9. (75% of
     matches)
     Sixth game:
     From 31 moves: After 13th move, when the theory ends, from 18
     remaining moves â 14 match with the first line of Fritz9. (78% of
     matches)
     Thus, out of 5 games â 78% of GM Kramnikâs moves match with the
     first line of Fritz9.
     Sincerely
     Silvio Danailov

   Wow, conclusive proof, right? Not really. First, we'd need to confirm
   Danailov's claims. Second, we'd have to show that they're really
   statistically significant. For instance, I've played bullet games
   (without cheating, in case there are any smart alecks out there) with
   a higher degree of coincidence with my engine's suggestions than the
   Kramnik 78% figure. Sometimes the position is such that some move or
   series of moves is just obviously best (captures, recaptures and
   forcing variations are the most noticeable examples). Third, were
   these non-obvious, "non-humanish" moves that mattered? Fourth, did
   they further coincide with bathroom breaks? Fifth, what's the usual
   degree of coincidence between Fritz 9 and Kramnik's chess, especially
   when playing Topalov? Sixth, what about other super-GMs? Do they
   generate roughly similar coincidence numbers?
   Is it impossible that there's something to Danailov's implicit
   accusation? No, and it's not impossible that Topalov is cheating
   during his bathroom breaks, either. But chances are this is just phase
   two of the Topalov team's psychological warfare, doubling as a
   defensive propaganda move against all the ill will that has
   accumulated against them over the past week.
   I'm inclined to think the right thing for Kramnik to do is ignore this
   ploy, but if he does, Danailov will probably just increase the volume.
   Are there any good solutions for Kramnik, short of ending the match in
   three games by winning out?
   [Hat tip: Perseus]

References

   1. http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=3401