[antimedia] antimedia: While Congress argues over a meaningless....

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Posted by antimedia:
While Congress argues over a meaningless....
http://www.antimedia.us/posts/1171681627.shtml


   ....non-binding resolution, the so-called "surge" has [1]already
   begun. There are some interesting dynamics going on in Iraq now.

     If you've been following the action long enough, you can pick out
     the accurate stories. And the talk on the street and in the shops
     is also pretty dependable. That said, most people believe al Qaeda
     in Iraq is finished. After boasting last Fall that they would
     establish a safe zone in western Iraq, and failing to do anything
     close to that, the Islamic terrorists lost whatever credibility
     they had left. Most of the terrorist bombings these days are the
     work of Iraqi Sunni Arab organizations, who still believe that if
     you make the Iraqi Shia Arabs mad enough, they will get so nasty
     that neighboring Sunni Arab nations will feel compelled to invade.
     This plan has split the Sunni Arab nationalists, mainly because the
     invasion shows no sign of happening, and the brighter terrorists
     point out that the Saudi army is unlikely to win against the
     Americans. In a trend that began two years ago, Sunni Arab factions
     are continuing to battle each other. U.S. troops stand aside when
     they encounter "Red-on-Red" fighting, then deal with the winner.

   Interesting. The passivity and unwillingness of the Arab middle east
   to get involved in Iraq is working to the advantage of the coaltion.
   At one time I thought that Arabs should have been involved in the
   coalition. Their fear of losing power kept them away, and now it's
   working in favor of the very thing they fear the most -- democracy
   thriving on their borders. Furthermore, the very thing that most
   "experts" insisted made Iraq "impossible to tame" -- the fractious
   nature of its citizenry -- may be the one thing that breaks the hold
   of tribalism and allows democracy to flourish.

     Baghdad has been suffering a major brain drain in the past year,
     with the most educated fleeing for foreign countries. Europe and
     North America are preferred destinations, but any place with a
     lower crime rate will do.
     Many exiles carry a sense of shame with them. What they flee is not
     the violence of "foreign occupiers," but of lawless Iraqis and
     foreign terrorists. Iraqis are running away from Arab criminals and
     fanatics. And none of those fanatics offer anything better, even if
     they win. The secular ones promise another Saddam, while the
     religious one offer a dictatorship run by clerics. It's still
     popular to blame the Americans for everything, while still hustling
     to get a job with the Americans or, best of all, a visa to enter
     the United States. Those who cannot, or do not, want to leave, are
     trying to figure out how to make the place work. This is generating
     a lot of debate in the Iraqi press, which has not been free to
     publish freely for over four decades. The one thing most factions
     agree on is the need for peace, and that attitude should make the
     Battle for Baghdad, which has already begun, very interesting.

   The next few weeks in Iraq could be very interesting. (Hat tip to
   [2]Austin Bay.)

References

   1. http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/20070215.aspx
   2. http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1632