[antimedia] antimedia: Is President Bush....

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Posted by antimedia:
Is President Bush....
http://www.antimedia.us/posts/1170308916.shtml


   ....[1]crazy like a fox?

     At the center of this realignment is Iran, which is perceived to
     have emerged from our Iraq intervention as the big winner. We paved
     the way for a Shiite government in Iraq that is much friendlier to
     Iran than was Saddam Hussein. Bolstered by high oil revenue, Iran
     has meddled in Iraq, rigidly pursued a nuclear capability, and
     funded Hezbollah and Hamas.
     But the pendulum of Middle East politics may be swinging back
     against Iranian assertiveness. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the
     Gulf states and others have become increasingly alarmed by Iran's
     behavior and by widening regional sectarian divisions. Because of
     this dynamic, U.S. bargaining power in the Middle East is growing.
     Moderate Arab states understand that the United States is an
     indispensable counterweight to Iran.

   If Richard Lugar is right, Bush just might be crazy like a fox.
   Lugar is [2]not alone in noticing the power shifts in the mideast.

     The fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 has unleashed the centuries-old
     blood feud between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq, which, in turn, has
     hardened sectarian hostilities across the Middle East. Meanwhile,
     Iran's bullish determination to enrich uranium and possibly acquire
     a nuclear capability deeply worries its Sunni neighbors, who see
     Iran's hand behind the Shiite drive for power in Iraq and elsewhere
     in the Middle East.
     No surprise then that Sunni rulers and radical clerics reacted
     viscerally to Hezbollah's perceived victory in the Lebanon war. But
     Riyadh's and Amman's denunciations of Shiite rulers and extremist
     groups, coupled with a flurry of anti-Hezbollah fatwas by radical
     Sunni clerics, have not diverted the admiring gaze of Arabs
     everywhere toward Hezbollah. Reversing this situation will not be
     easy, especially when Hezbollah's yellow flag and pictures of its
     leader, Hassan Nasrallah, are ubiquitous on the Arab street.

   The tidal wave rushing across the mideast has forever altered the
   power equation, forcing all the mideastern countries to think
   carefully about the way forward.
   It hasn't been discussed much in the US media, but the Saudis made
   [3]a stunning announcement late last year. They stated that if the US
   left Iraq, they would step in to protect their Sunni brothers. There's
   no doubt that the Saudis know exactly what that could mean -- war with
   Iran. The Saudis could put the squeeze on Iran by lowering oil prices,
   pushing the Iranian economy even farther into the dumps and
   effectively undercutting their ability to fight a war.
   Two weeks ago the former Kuwaiti education minister [4]ridiculed Iran
   warning that they could not possibly match the power of the US,
   despite Ahmadinejad's bluster.

     "In America, they lie for tactical reasons, saying again and again
     that military action against Iran is unlikely. However, in Iran,
     out of ignorance, they reiterate that American military action
     against their country is impossible because the U.S. is 'unable' to
     [undertake such action]!
     "We say - and we hope our analysis is wrong - that a possible
     military strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities is [already]
     in the final stages [of preparation]. Unless a political miracle
     occurs that revives the halted dialogue between Iran and the
     international community, Iran and its neighboring countries should
     not be surprised by a scenario that includes American military
     action.
     "There are a number of common illusions in the Arab and Muslim mind
     in general, illusions that on several occasions in the past have
     been tested and proven untenable. It was proven that the Arabs
     confuse their hopes with reality...
     "There is an illusion that Iran is a huge military state with
     decisive striking power. This would be true in a confrontation
     between Iran and one of its neighbors. But the fact is that in any
     confrontation between America and Iran, Iran would be a tiny
     helpless state. It would suffer what the Arabs suffered in 1967,
     and what Iraq suffered when Saddam stubbornly rejected all peaceful
     solutions. America will be able to impose its conditions. This has
     nothing to do with love or hatred. Geographically and historically,
     Iran is closer to [the Arab countries] than America, and the
     cultural and historical relations we have with Iran outweigh our
     ties with America. [But] reality shows that the balance of power is
     flagrantly tilted in favor of the United States and the Western
     alliance, particularly the European one!"

   No matter what the outcome is of our adventure in Iraq, the mideast
   will never be the same. Sunni-led states are [5]deeply worried about
   rising Shiite power. That worry is driving them to turn to America for
   support for several initiatives to blunt Shiite power.
   Perhaps one of the reasons America has not suffered another terror
   attack is because the many mideast factions have been diverted
   elsewhere. Perhaps Bush is lucky.
   Or perhaps Bush has outsmarted everyone.

References

   1. http://www.democracy-project.com/archives/003101.html
   2. http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-nasr27aug27,0,1526858.story?coll=la-opinion-rightrail
   3. http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/articles/2006/ioi/061129-obaid-iraq.html
   4. http://www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SD144807
   5. http://www.statesman.com/opinion/content/editorial/stories/insight/11/26/26shiiteworries.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=45