[antimedia] antimedia: The "experts" seem to be all over the map....

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Posted by antimedia:
The "experts" seem to be all over the map....
http://www.antimedia.us/posts/1153361111.shtml


   ....regarding the present conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Some
   worry the war will widen. Others think it will end soon. Some think
   Israel will go all the way to the Bekka valley. Others think Israel
   will not put ground troops into Lebanon at all. (They've already been
   proven wrong.)
   Omar, at Iraq the Model, has [1]a completely different perception of
   what's going on, and he worries that a cataclysm is on the horizon.

     A few days ago we mentioned that we tend to believe that this
     ongoing war in-geographically-Lebanon is not only about Hizbollah
     and Israel; that it is probably the first stage of a wider regional
     conflict that is going to extend far beyond the borders of Lebanon
     and Israel.
     What I want to add today is that it is not wise to try to deal with
     it in the same way previous conflicts were dealt with, why?
     Because this conflict is not like any of the previous ones.
     What we must realize here is the involvement of the theological
     (mythological) element in this particular conflict which is also
     the reason why this conflict has the potential to expand into
     full-scale regional war.

   He goes on to discuss some very recent changes that have taken place
   in Baghdad that could be a portent of very bad things to come.

     All previous wars between Israel and Arabs were of a
     pan-nationalist nature and used feelings of Arabism to push the
     people to war. Of course religion had a role too but now religion
     is going to push Arabism aside and be the dominant element in
     Iran's planned war because of the failure of pan-nationalism to
     retain its influence in the region after a long history of
     failures.
     Iran's dreams in exporting the Islamic revolution were stopped by
     the once strong pan-nationalism in last quarter of the 20th century
     but today we're facing a renewed project of exporting the Islamic
     revolution in an attempt to fill-and taking advantage of-the vacuum
     left by the fading pan Arab nationalismâ¦
     And with liberalism still not strong enough to face such a
     challenge, I think the future of the region is in big danger.

   I have a great deal more faith in the opinions of an educated, native
   Iraqi than I do in the so-called experts who have studied the Mideast.
   When Omar sees ominous signs on the horizon, I take him seriously, and
   I worry.
   There can be no doubt that the mullahs in Iran are behind the attacks
   of Hezbollah on Israel. At the same time, there is very little doubt
   that Iran has been interfering in Iraq from the beginning. The mullahs
   are just crazy enough to unleash a nuclear attack on Israel (they've
   certainly threatened to do so), and that prospect should bother us
   greatly.
   Will the world have the fortitude to take Iran on militarily? Or will
   the "leaders" of Europe be wringing their hands calling for patience
   and political solutions? Would a nuclear attack unleash the armageddon
   that Iran seems to so devoutly desire and believe is coming? What
   would Russia or China do?
   These are troubling times, my friends. If Omar's observations bear
   fruit, all the political contention of the past few years could be
   swept away by the realization that our very survival depends upon
   pulling together to defeat a determined and fanatical enemy.

References

   1. http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2006/07/just-new-banners-or-war-drums.html