[antimedia] antimedia: Editor & Publisher wants to convince journalists....

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Posted by antimedia:
Editor & Publisher wants to convince journalists....
http://www.antimedia.us/posts/1155699923.shtml


   ....that [1]the Iraq war is a disaster and that the leaders of both
   Iraq and the US are both unrealistically optimistic and completely
   ignorant of the "real" situation in Iraq. To do that, they manage to
   find an anonymous intelligence officer who says

     "As an intelligence officer ... I have had the chance to move
     around Baghdad on mounted and dismounted patrols and see the city
     and violence from the ground. I think that the greatest problem
     that we deal (besides the insurgents and militia) with is that our
     leadership has no real comprehension of the ground truth. I wish
     that I could offer a solution, but I can't. When I have briefed
     General Officers, I have given them my perspective and assessment
     of the situation. Many have been surprised at what I have to say,
     but I suspect that in the end nothing will or has changed."

   Of course, this intelligence officer's view of the situation in Iraq
   is colored by what he sees as well, and his view is necessarily more
   narrowed than leaders who get reports from all areas of operations
   rather than just his.
   A [2]thorough analysis of Iraq, OTOH, finds that not much has changed
   in the past three years, except that the "insurgents" have focused on
   civilian casualties lately whereas in previous years civilian deaths
   were more "opportunistic".
   The report notes some very interesting details from an analysis of
   fatalities in Iraq.

     During the first year of the war, the insurgency showed signs of
     consistency and ferocity, with an especially deadly cycle of
     violence that started around September 11, 2003âthe second
     anniversary of the 9/11 attacksâbut generally operated at a low
     level.

   The tie-in with 9/11 suggests that terrorists may have begun
   coordinated operations in Iraq about six months after the initial
   phase of the war ended.
   Media reports also appear to have had an impact on the violence.

     In a three-day period at the start of May (coinciding with reports
     in Newsweek, later proven false, about a Quranâs being flushed down
     a toilet by U.S. soldiers at the Guantanamo detention center, and
     with publication of the pre-war ââDowning Streetââ memo), more than
     100 Iraqis were killed and nearly double that number wounded in a
     blatant effort to intimidate the new government.7

   There may be coordination in the escalations of violence as well.

     As it happened, the escalation of violence in Iraq that peaked in
     early August was paralleled by an increase in U.S. fatalities in
     Afghanistan. It is difficult to determine if events in one theater
     of operation are linked with or otherwise directly affect events in
     the other.14 However, it is significant that the months of April,
     June, and August, months of increasing U.S. fatalities as the Iraqi
     transitional government was established and the constitution
     drafted, were also the months with the highest U.S. fatality totals
     of the entire war in Afghanistan, with 18, 26, and 15,
     respectively. As a result of these surges, 2005 was the deadliest
     year of that war to date for U.S. soldiers, with 94 fatalities,
     double the number in 2004. Combined casualty figures for Iraq and
     Afghanistan (and including an estimated 60 killed and 100 wounded
     in other locations as part of Operation Enduring Freedom) exceed
     20,000 as of March 19, 2006, with 17,974 wounded and 2,596 dead.

   More study needs to be done, but this suggests the hand of Al Qaeda
   coordinating attacks in an attempt to discourage Americans. (But don't
   anyone dare suggest that Afghanistan and Iraq are related, say the
   skeptics.)

     In the third year, the escalation in the U.S. war effort slowed,
     but a new bifurcation of the insurgency developed, in the form of
     calculated civil strife involving Iraqis. Early in the war,
     civilian casualties occurred as inevitable, collateral damage.
     During the occupation, which began after Baghdad fell, attacks on
     civilians were common but opportunistic in nature, seizing on
     lapses in the domestic security apparatus in Iraq. As the second
     year progressed, the insurgency focused its organized efforts on
     escalating hostilities targeting U.S. troops. However as the Iraqi
     election cycle began in January 2005, Iraqis were regularly and
     systematically targeted by insurgents. In the third year of the war
     alone, approximately 10,0002 Iraqi police, soldiers, and civilians
     were killed. The insurgency inflicted considerable damage on U.S.
     forces, but total casualties were down by 29 percent from the
     second year (see Table 1).

   One thing that is really strking is the chart of fatalities. There are
   the usual ups and downs, but the violence is no worse now than it was
   in previous years.
   This goes completely counter to the media's meme (civil war!), but
   those are the facts. There is no question that the war in Iraq is
   [3]"a long, hard slough", as the administration has repeatedly warned.
   In fact, the claim that the administration has a "rosy" or unrealistic
   outlook on Iraq is belied by the [4]President's [5]constant
   [6]reminders that there are [7]difficult [8]days ahead.

References

   1. http://editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002986575&imw=Y
   2. http://icasualties.org/oif/3_Year_Retrospective.htm
   3. http://www.msnbc.com/news/984071.asp?cp1=1
   4. http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={AB72E5BB-FEEE-4458-9704-5DBDA891FC3F}&dist=rss&siteid=mktw
   5. http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/03/26/sprj.irq.bush.war/index.html
   6. http://www.voanews.com/bangla/archive/2005-05/2005-05-21-voa12.cfm
   7. http://www.indolink.com/displayArticleS.php?id=052504105351
   8. http://voanews.com/english/archive/2006-04/2006-04-01-voa27.cfm?CFID=6750148&CFTOKEN=66500159